2023 September 25

Daily news wrap-up

Exodus of Armenians out of Nagorno-Karabakh continues: Day 2 // Friends & enemies // Fuel storage explosion in Stepanakert injures hundreds // Interviews & analysis: Lost opportunities & barriers
by ar_david_hh

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residents of Nagorno-Karabakh are forced to leave their homes

7,000 of the 120,000 people have so far been forced to migrate to Armenia due to the unlivable conditions created by the September 19th Azerbaijani military aggression and their 10-month-long blockade of the region.

About half of the refugees will stay in their relatives' homes in Armenia. The other half are receiving government housing. The government has launched hotline "114" and www.e-soc.am to provide information about available assistance.

Yesterday Azerbaijan provided two trucks of fuel to expedite the movement out of the region, said one resident of Nagorno-Karabakh who didn't have fuel up until now. Azerbaijan shut off the regular delivery of gas, fuel, and electricity into Nagono-Karabakh several months ago.

No livable conditions were created for residents to return to their homes after the September 19th attack, while certain conditions were created for them to leave the region.

MARTAKERT MAYOR: The city has been fully depopulated and is under Azerbaijani control now.

RESIDENT: We didn't think there would be an attack because we trusted peacekeepers to maintain peace. They treated us well and provided us with food once we moved to the camps near their base. While entering Armenia, Azerbaijani agents required all men to exit buses and march towards the border on foot.

JOURNALIST: The lights are back in Stepanakert but it makes the atmosphere a whole lot sadder because you see all the dim apartments owned by families who have fled.

• [vehicle caravan,](https://twitter.com/AchrenVerdian/status/1706212849301750073)
• [source,](https://hetq.am/hy/article/160489)
• [mayor,](https://twitter.com/azatutyunradio/status/1706246180013826301)
• [resident,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R82wWdg-_8?t=1029)
• [resident,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1ldfuNTWoA)
• [resident,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZmNj3B6F3Y)
• [exodus images,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/269935)
• [source,](https://factor.am/692832.html)
• [video by reporter,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUBHl2Qbsl4)
• [source,](https://factor.am/693103.html)
• [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/politics/primary_needs_platform_and_hotline_for_karabakh_refugees_launched_in_armenia/)

BBC: Thousands flee from Nagorno-Karabakh as Armenia says ethnic cleansing underway

>A growing stream of ethnic Armenian refugees are fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh following Azerbaijan's seizure of the disputed region last week.

>More than 6,500 people have so far crossed into Armenia from the enclave, which is home to a majority of some 120,000 ethnic Armenians.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66905581

POLITICO: Nagorno-Karabakh exodus grows as Armenia warns of ‘ethnic cleansing’

https://www.politico.eu/article/ethnic-cleansing-nagorno-karabakh-armenia-azerbaijan-nikol-pashinyan/

AlJazeera:

Sheila Paylan, an international human rights lawyer, said she does not believe ethnic Armenians will be treated fairly under Azerbaijani rule.

>There is a long-standing policy of hatred towards the Armenians that goes back decades. That just doesn’t stop overnight. There’s no reasonable basis to trust there will be any safety or security or rights protected for the Armenians of Karabakh … They are very much in danger right now

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/24/ethnic-armenians-likely-to-leave-karabakh-after-azeri-victory-armenian-pm

image of a Stepanakert resident walking home with his guitar, circa 2023

https://i.imgur.com/si7chkv.jpg

Armenia's special ambassador Edmon Marukyan about the failures by Russia and the West to ensure the physical existence of ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in their homeland:

(1) The population of Nagorno-Karabakh is forcefully displaced from their homes and after 6 days of sleeping in the cellars hungry and thirsty, were not given the opportunity to return to their homes, but to be evacuated from their ancestral land.

(2) The Russian peacekeeping mission did not ensure their peaceful existence in Nagorno Karabakh on the basis of the November 9, 2020, trilateral statement.

(3) We acknowledge that the EU, the USA, and all other international actors failed to ensure the rights and security guarantees of the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh to allow them to live safely in their ancestral lands.

• [source,](https://twitter.com/edmarukyan/status/1706206976760336501)

major explosion near Stepanakert: hundreds wounded after an incident at a fuel storage

Many drivers were waiting in line to receive fuel so they could escape to Armenia. Over 200 were wounded, with mostly serious or critical injuries.

Armenia wants to use medical helicopters to evacuate the injured out of Nagorno-Karabakh. There is no medicine to treat the patients in Nagorno-Karabakh because of Azerbaijan's illegal blockade of the Lachin corridor.

• [video,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMykSTUlsbA)
• [video,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5u3El5_SVqY)
• [source,](https://factor.am/693354.html)
• [source,](https://a1plus.am/hy/article/462208)

second NK-AZ negotiations are held, this time in Nagorno-Karabakh

The first direct meeting took place immediately after the ceasefire in Azerbaijan's Yevlakh. The second meeting took place on Monday in Nagorno-Karabakh's Ivanyan settlement.

They discussed humanitarian issues and the possibility of sending Armenian civil society activists to meet their counterparts in Azerbaijani cities.

• [source,](https://factor.am/692882.html)
• [source,](https://factor.am/693152.html)

intervieiw with Nagorno-Karabakh opposition leader Gen. Samvel Babayan

REPORTER: How were you able to enter Armenia [without being arrested by Azerbaijani agents]?

BABAYAN: Through the Azerbaijani checkpoint. Ask them for the videotape and they'll show you.

REPORTER: Azerbaijan was saying they would arrest key players in the 1st Karabakh war. Was your name not on the list?

BABAYAN: Ask Baku. If my name was on it, why didn't they arrest me? Ask their customs agents why they didn't notice me passing through.

REPORTER: Did you disguise?

BABAYAN: No.

REPORTER: There are reports of people being unable to move to Armenia due to fuel shortages. You lead a party in Parliament. Will you help them?

BABAYAN: There are lots of vehicle caravans traveling to Armenia. They can use one of them. If anyone has a difficulty, they can contact me and I'll provide support.

REPORTER: [Before the war] many people were hoping you would take some kind of action. Do you have any plans now? Maybe a partisan movement?

BABAYAN: Vito [vitali Balasanyan, gov't official]* said he will remain in Nagorno-Karabakh until the end. Let him join the Russian peacekeepers and launch a partisan warfare. [sarcasm]*

• [source,](https://factor.am/692964.html)

the head of Indo-Armenian Friendship NGO wants India to establish a military base in Armenia

RANANJAY ANAND: Turkey and Azerbaijan want to forcefully open a "Zangezur corridor" through Armenia. This is bad news for India because the corridor would activate the Panturkic route to the gates of Kashmir. The Pakistan-Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance is a threat to India's national security. It's time to consider an Indian military or aviation base in Armenia. //

• [source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/269933)

Russia: "it's Nikol's fault"

MFA of RUSSIA (tldr): Nikol is blaming the situation on Russia because he has decided to turn Armenia's foreign vector towards the West. We have always respected Armenia's statehood and never forced you to make a choice. You all owe Putin big time.

Nikol is refusing to give us a Zangezur corridor and to draw the AM-AZ borders with our super-accurate maps that show Jermuk as part of Azerbaijan. He has chosen the Western platform instead.

Turkey has promised us lots of money to write the following, so here it goes: "Nikol maintained soldiers from the Republic of Armenia inside Nagorno-Karabakh against the Nov. 9 agreement." Had he removed his soldiers, none of this would have happened. We will provide no evidence of Republic of Armenia soldiers being present in Nagorno-Karabakh since 2022, but you should trust us and Azerbaijan when we say so.

Now Nikol is accusing us of organizing the protests in Yerevan. He is arresting our pals for no reason, while the U.S. ambassador maintains close contact with him.

It's a big mistake for Nikol to ruin the AM-RU relations. We are confident the vast majority of Armenians love Russia. //

[original](https://www.civilnet.am/news/752022/մոսկվան-հարգել-է-հայկական-պետականությունը-և-մեզ-հետ-կամ-առանց-մեզ-ընտրության-առաջ-չի-կանգնեցրել/) [original](https://hetq.am/hy/article/160523)

Russia: "not our fault"

PUTIN'S OFFICE (tldr): None of this is Russia's fault. Screw the phony West. Armenia is our ally. We will continue to work with Nikol to defend the rights of Armenian-Azeris, despite him being a դանգռատ in our ass.

[original](https://hetq.am/hy/article/160504)

Russia forced Nagorno-Karabakh to reject the Western-backed negotiations with Azerbaijan, before unceremoniously abandoning them and blaming everything on Armenia || Interview with Daniel Ioannesian

DANIEL: The government of Nagorno-Karabakh was supposed to negotiate with Azerbaijan before this attack. The West had repeatedly offered to meet.

On June 19 they were supposed to meet in Sophia with the help of the U.S. The meeting didn't take place because Russia applied direct and strong pressure on the Nagorno-Karabakh government to reject it.

REPORTER: Is this when Russia's state media Ria Novosti published the famous article about Azerbaijan's possible "anti-terror" operation? [as a threat against Nagorno-Karabakh]

DANIEL: Yes. At the time Russia warned Nagorno-Karabakh about the threat of an Azerbaijani attack and warned them not to agree to the Western negotiation platform. But the complete opposite happened [Nagorno-Karabakh turned down the U.S. offer and still got attacked, while Russia watched].

REPORTER: Were there other Western offers after Sophia?

DANIEL: Yes. They were offered to meet in Bratislava * [rejected by Azerbaijan]. There were other offers as well. There were also ultimatums [by Azerbaijan]. When [the former regime of Nagorno-Karabakh] decided to replace the president of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan warned and said this process would be viewed as a provocation.

The new government of Nagorno-Karabakh adopted a maximalist rhetoric until the last moment. *"Hurrah, we are an independent country!"* Where are they now? Did Russia help them?

REPORTER: Did the regime know that this would be Nagorno-Karabakh's fate after coming to power?

DANIEL: I can't rule out premeditation. Look at how fast they surrendered and signed the capitulation. Without exaggeration, Nagorno-Karabakh had more tanks and other equipment than Armenia. There were 100 tanks in Nagorno-Karabakh, more than in Armenia.

I'll tell you how that happened. In November 2020, after voluntarily surrendering the Kelbajar region and realizing that soon it would be impossible to send heavy equipment to Nagorno-Karabakh, several columns of heavy equipment were sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. The videos are all over the internet.

The columns contained almost all the heavy equipment possessed by Armenia. The idea was that Armenia could soon buy new ones from abroad but this would be the last chance for Nagorno-Karabakh to receive any.

This was a mistake. It made Armenia more vulnerable. Also, why didn't the Nagorno-Karabakh government blow up this equipment instead of surrendering them? Are they sure these tanks won't be used by Azerbaijan against Armenia next? Where will they be used? Treason charges should be pressed against the official who decided not to blow them up.

REPORTER: What interests is Russia pursuing?

DANIEL: 1) Control over a corridor passing through Armenia. 2) Create the impression that they are a global superpower. Their reputation as a superpower used to be based on objective facts. Now those are gone, but Russia wants this illusion to persist. Russia can't afford to lose Armenia to the West right now because that would be major reputational damage at a sensitive time when they are trying to bring African countries to their sphere of influence while simultaneously trying to maintain influence over other countries.

REPORTER: Does this mean this time Russia will try to remove Pashinyan with the street process by going to the end?

DANIEL: They will try. They will also try to threaten Armenia with a new set of tools to prevent things like Armenia's exit from CSTO.

Armenia must leave CSTO because it does more harm than good. The military-technical cooperation was broken with Russia at Russia's own fault. Armenia paid for equipment but never received it, and not because of "Nikol".

Our membership in CSTO also discourages Western states from selling weapons to us. Western states have already offered arms deals to Armenia. We have received offers.

REPORTER: What are we waiting for? Why don't we exit CSTO?

DANIEL: I think the Armenian government is still cautious and wants to see Russia's reaction to the ratification of the Rome Statute first. But what they don't understand is that it's impossible to appease Russia by sweettalking them or to convince them to become a better ally. Kremlin only undrstands քֆուր-քյաֆար․

QUESTION: Could Russia's 102nd military base in Gyumri enter Yerevan and overthrow the government?

DANIEL: I can't rule that out. If the opposition captures government buildings and organizes mass riots, the Russian military could enter Yerevan under the pretense of establishing order.

REPORTER: Similar to the Kazakh scenario?

DANIEL: That's different becuase Kazakhstan invited Russian soldiers. Russia had to ask for permission first. But this was a different era. Russia still had some reputation and had things to lose. If Russia decided it could invade the entire country of Ukraine and appoint its puppet Medvedchuk as the leader, what would prevent them from doing the same in Armenia? The only barriers are the Armenian public and local forces. Russia understands the U.S. won't send troops to Armenia, and they would no longer care about any Western sanctions after the invasion of Yerevan, so we can't rule out that scenario. They could invade if they feel like someone in Yerevan [opposition forces] will greet them with open arms.

We have been warning about the need to defend Armenia's independence from Russia for a decade. They used to dismiss and call us "puppets of Soros". Now Russia itself is openly stating they want to deprive Armenia of its independence. They want to assign a governor to manage a province called Armenia. A new Tatarstan region.

Yes, we will endure economic hardships caused by higher gas prices and export problems, but that is the price we must pay to be truly independent. Many countries have gone through hardship while gaining their independence from empires. They are in a better position today.

• [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mkApvqyIwQ?t=268)

interview with analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan

REPORTER: Explain the September events in Nagorno-Karabakh.

HOVSEP: The political forces that were against holding Western-led negotiations with Azerbaijan were able to hijack power. Nagorno-Karabakh rejected Sophia, while AZ rejected the Bratislava meeting.

This maximalist cabal was previously publicly against the opening of the Agdam route but they opened it under the Russian order as soon as they came to power. Today they are negotiating in Yevlakh. They chose Yevlakh/Russia over Sophia/West.

REPORTER: But they refused to visit Sohpia because they feared that Azerbaijan would demand integration and would attack upon receiving a rejection.

HOVSEP: They miscalculated. There is no reason to believe there would be war had they agreed to Sophia. As for the "integration", they should have abandoned the maximalist stance and sent someone to negotiate their terms such as a high level of autonomy. Even if Azerbaijan disagreed, Stepanakert would still appear as the constructive side. These negotiations would give the West broader abilities to monitor and act as a restraining force.

Instead, they shunned the West, organized a coup against the legitimate government, and installed a marionette regime controlled by Russia, Kocharyan, and Serj.

REPORTER: Robert Kochayan said he was excited when Arayik resigned.

HOVSEP: When Azerbaijan began accumulating troops on the NK-AZ border, president Arayik used Armenia as an intermediary to ask the West to prevent the attack. No attack took place at the time. The new pro-Russian regime was hoping to appease Russia instead. By being more pro-Russian, they thought they could extract stronger preventative measures from Russia. They thought Russia would help if they saw a pro-Russian regime in Nagorno-Karabakh. The new president even complained that Armenia had decided to change its defense partnerships. They didn't learn the lesson: It doesn't matter if you're pro-Russian. The more dependent you are on Russia, the more likely they will use and abuse you.

REPORTER: Russia's Maria Zakharova openly stated that the September 19th attack was a "lesson" for Armenia for strengthening ties with the West.

HOVSEP: A lesson for whom? For Nagorno-Karabakh? Despite it having a pro-Russian regime? Zakharova hopes that the torture of ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will force the entire Armenian nation to bow to Russia.

REPORTER: Who was Arayik Harutyunyan?

HOVSEP: A hostage who chose to work with everyone: West, Russia, and the Armenian government.

• [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQMcQlX2Wwk)

interview with amabassador-at-large Edmon Marukyan

MARUKYAN: Yerevan had been urging Stepanakert to hold dialogue with Baku, the one they are forced to hold today. It could have been done without this bloodshed. The processes could unfold differently. But Sophia, Bratislava, and Yevlakh were canceled. Then there was a demand to completely disarm the defense army. It was possible to move the weapons to Armenia at the time. There was a chance. They should have calculated their defense capabilities under a blockade.

REPORTER: Are those weapons being transferred to Russia or Azerbaijan?

MARUKYAN: There is no difference *[damn that's passive aggressive]*. The option to move the weapons to Armenia was available for around 2 years.

REPORTER: They feared that Azerbaijan would attack if they removed the weapons.

MARUKYAN: Those weapons weren't enough anyway for any significant resistance. It was a miscalculation by them. But the actual reason they refused to remove the weapons is that certain forces in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh would call them "traitors" had they agreed. This irresponsible attitude is why we've been losing one opportunity after the other.

REPORTER: I recently spoke with an opposition figure, who wants Pashinyan's resignation, and he believes it's best for Armenia to give a corridor to Azerbaijan because he believes that will be the guarantee for security.

MARUKYAN: Armenia is ready to open a route. We have stated it 60,000 times already. It's about whether the territory will continue to belong to Armenia or not. Is it about doing trade together or stealing each other's land? If it's the former then we need border guards and customs checkpoints. Azerbaijan keeps rejecting our offer.

REPORTER: Is the Nov. 9 agreement still alive?

MARUKYAN: It's practically dead. Azerbaijan has broken all the terms.

• [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnybsD7b50k)

interview with dissident Azerbaijani analyst Arif Yunusov

YUNUSOF: Azerbaijan will attempt to ensure that a certain share of the population can remain in Nagorno-Karabakh so they won't be accused of ethnic cleansing. Russia is currently negotiating with Azerbaijan to extend the presence of peacekeepers by another 10 years. We don't know yet what they will offer them in exchange.

• [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjR8N1JITIo)

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/16s89r7/exodus_of_armenians_out_of_nagornokarabakh/