2023 August 30

Daily news wrap-up

West wants to deploy int'l peacekeepers, convert Nagorno-Karabakh army into police: ex-PM Sargsyan || Armenian kamikaze drones; Gripen & Mirage; $1.2b military budget || "Send fact-finding mission to Karabakh": German official || "Looks like a genocide": Mayor of Paris || Russia-Azerbaijan alliance
by ar_david_hh

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10 minutes.

read Tuesday's report for context

The president of Azerbaijan has admitted that he has been intentionally keeping the Lachin corridor blocked, despite the legally binding order of the World Court to open it.

The blockade has long been denied by Azerbaijan at the highest levels, including during the UN Security Council meeting, until now. President Ilham Aliyev told France's Macron that Armenians will be allowed to use the Lachin corridor again, by passing through the illegal Azeri checkpoint, only after accepting the entry of Azerbaijani vehicles via the second "Agdam road".

[Tuesday report for context](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/164t5p0/aliyev_admits_he_has_blocked_lachin_azerbaijan/)

BBC: People are fainting queuing up for bread in Nagorno-Karabakh, can't reunite with family members stuck on the other side of the corridor

The blockade of the Lachin corridor isn't just about food, it's also about people's right to return to their homeland, and to their families.

BBC: They call it the Road of Life, as it is the only route connecting 120,000 ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region with Armenia.

But for nearly 9 months the Lachin Corridor has been blocked by Azerbaijani authorities, resulting in severe shortages of food, medication, hygiene products, and fuel in the breakaway region.

Armenians are unable to reach their families on the other side of the Lachin Corridor because it has been blocked by Azerbaijan since December.

One resident says: "No eggs, no sugar, there are no sweets at all, bread is being rationed, got up at 04:00 the other day to stand in the queue."

This month the U.S. called on Azerbaijan to restore free movement along the Lachin Corridor during an emergency UN Security Council meeting.

The World Court had already told Azerbaijan it had a legally binding order to allow "unimpeded movement of persons, vehicles and cargo" on the road in both directions.

Azerbaijan says it wants full control of Nagorno-Karabakh and has offered an alternative supply route via the town of Agdam. Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of making false promises when there is only one route connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. "[Azerbaijan] wants to try and change the focus of the international community, to dissolve the understanding and obligation of the Lachin Corridor."

[full](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66646677)

statement by Nagorno-Karabakh's main opposition figure Samvel Babayan

Babayan wants to install laboratories to check the safety of food entering through Azerbaijan's Agdam road. He wants the Lachin corridor and Agdam to operate simultaneously, and allow the population to decide which road to use.

BABAYAN: Our government makes it seem as if there are only two options: accept the cargo via Agdam and integrate into Azerbaijan, or evacuate everyone out of Nagorno-Karabakh. But these aren't the only options.

I had offered them to join me and draft a 20-point document that will serve as the basis for our negotiations with Azerbaijan. My team will finalize and present that document soon.

Comprehensive negotiations are necessary so that one or two trucks won't pass before the road is closed again. We must sit down and discuss with Azeris where the region is headed in general. //

Azerbaijan has so far refused to negotiate with Nagorno-Karabakh in a location that is physically safe for Nagorno-Karabakh's ethnic Armenian diplomats.

[source,](https://rus.azatutyun.am/a/32570712.html)

there is a real threat of ethnic cleansing: Chairman of German Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee

Michael Roth: There is a real danger of humanitarian disaster and ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan is endangering the fragile AM-AZ peace process and the security in the South Caucasus. The EU and Germany cannot remain silent.

Azerbaijan must immediately lift the blockade. We need to deploy a fact-finding mission to Nagorno-Karabakh. //

[source;](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/267766)

French humanitarian aid reaches Lachin corridor, cannot pass because of Azerbaijan's blockade

Leaders of French cities and provinces, including Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, have brought 10 trucks full of humanitarian cargo to Armenia but were unable to deliver it to Nagorno-Karabakh because of Azerbaijan's illegal blockade of the Lachin corridor.

Video of the cargo leaving for Lachin: [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d21sr_vwsAk)

Press conference by French officials: [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8NjLLSlmns)

... "concentration camp": French officials describe conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh

PARIS MAYOR: For 9 months, 120,000 Armenians, including 30,000 children have been isolated, starving, and deprived of everything. We have brought urgent aid in response to this humanitarian disaster. Time is running out.

MARSEILLE REP.: It is unacceptable to force people to leave their homes by using starvation as a weapon.

A PROVINCE GOV.: Nagorno-Karabakh looks like a concentration camp, an open-air prison.

... Mayor of Paris urges Macron to draft and promote a UN Security Council resolution; "looks like a genocide"

It is necessary to ensure that the rights of Nagorno-Karabakh people are being respected, said Anne Hidalgo. She said the events in Nangorno-Karabakh resemble a genocide.

... personal lawsuit against Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, "a-la-Putin"

Île-de-France province rep.: We the representatives of French regions will pressure the government to exit its comfort zone and take action at the state level.

Our regional president Valérie Pécresse entered Nagorno-Karabakh in 2021. At the time, Azerbaijani President Aliyev made threats against her. There were also physical threats. The French government did not respond adequately at the time.

My attorney is certified by the International Criminal Court. I have asked them to file a protest against Ilham Aliyev. We want to target the dictator Aliyev personally, just as we target Vladimir Putin today.

[source,](https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32570726.html) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agjO6z0-_oU) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwg6DEWt4Po) [source,](https://factor.am/682170.html) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaXHhf-pgns) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kei-cUynym8) [English,](https://arka.am/en/news/politics/what_is_happening_in_artsakh_looks_like_genocide_says_paris_mayor_anne_hidalgo/)

Nagorno-Karabakh president thanks France for support

President Arayik Harutyunyan joined a video conference with the French delegation located in Armenia.

PRESIDENT: I'd like to thank every participant of this initiative. We will not forget this. I bow down to you.

[video;](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7U4tuViOQM)

Nagorno-Karabakh raises the French flag next to its state flag as a sign of gratitude: VIDEO

[video,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYpYa_Sy3-w)

Russia comes in support of Azerbaijan again: "France must respect Azerbaijan's opinion"

The foreign ministry of Russia condemned France's "intervention" and the attempts to "counter Russia's efforts to resolve the conflict". Russia urges France not to "ignore" Azerbaijan's position in this conflict.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq6Ps042Vrg?t=4)

Russia has been pressuring Nagorno-Karabakh to use the Agdam road instead

Nagorno-Karabakh Parliament leader has revealed that Russian peacekeepers were urging them to open and use the Agdam road yesterday, but the government refused.

Reporter: Why are you so actively urging Nagorno-Karabnakh to use the Agdam road instead of the Lachin corridor?

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman: I'll clarify and get back to you with the answer. //

The peacekeepers eventually agreed to [secure the road](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsxHEWIS9dQ?t=9) to prevent movement.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFl7NzAFWW4?t=2986) [source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/267689) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqPorgbb9KY?t=223)

interview with ex-PM Aram Sargsyan: Russia-Azerbaijan alliance

SARGSYAN: The West was trying to organize negotiations between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan, possibly in Tbilisi, but Russia and Azerbaijan, acting jointly against the West, have derailed these efforts.

The duo wants to ensure the dominance of the Russian negotiation platform so they can execute Lavrov's 14-point plan on the "integration" of Armenians into Azerbaijan.

... the West was trying to deploy international peacekeepers

SARGSYAN: Nagorno-Karabakh president Arayik Harutyunyan was personally in favor of the meeting suggested by the West. I'm familiar with what they were supposed to discuss during the meeting.

The West was going to propose the conversion of Nagorno-Karabakh's Defense Army into a police, in exchange for the deployment of international peacekeepers. The West wanted a Kosovo- and Cyprus-style agreement, where the armies agreed to remove heavy equipment and convert into police forces. A special zone was going to be formed to deploy the peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This is when the [now-former] leader of the Nagorno-Karabakh parliament [Artur Tovmasyan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Tovmasyan#/media/File:Arthur_Tovmasyan.jpg) called for Arayik Harutyunyan's resignation. He wanted the power to be transferred to a special Defense Committee.

This isn't the first time the West has offered international peacekeepers. During the 2020 war, the [U.S. suggested](https://en.armradio.am/2020/10/30/robert-obrien-calls-for-scandinavian-peacekeepers-in-nagorno-karabakh-rules-out-any-turkish-role/) the deployment of Scandinavian peacekeepers because the peacekeepers weren't supposed to be from the OSCE Minsk Group member states. At the time, Armenia responded saying that the West should also agree to Russian peacekeepers.

The most important fact is that the offer still stands: The West is offering international peacekeepers. If Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh want it, there are specific steps they must take.

This would have been a lot easier to achieve *during* the 2020 war. After the war, Azerbaijan's permission is necessary to deploy international peacekeepers, but they won't grant it because they would much rather take one village at a time with the permission of *Russian* peacekeepers, until their final withdrawal in 2025.

{[Read Aram Sargsyan's plan on how to bypass Azerbaijan's "veto"](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/15zhsb7/completely_false_us_denies_rumors_about_blocking/) and deploy international peacekeepers.}

This is where Macron can play a role. Macron's primary goal today is to send a monitoring group to Nagorno-Karabakh, similar to the deployment of EU border monitors to Armenia. These border monitors have played a significant positive role. Russia is against both monitoring groups, they want "exclusive" rights in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

But the West and France want a presence in Nagorno-Karabakh. France is doing a lot for Armenia today, but what is Armenia doing for France? We should publicly condemn "Russia's aggression against Ukraine".

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewZc_JYINvo) [source,](https://en.armradio.am/2020/10/30/robert-obrien-calls-for-scandinavian-peacekeepers-in-nagorno-karabakh-rules-out-any-turkish-role/)

U.S. has a new ally

Constantine Atlamazoglou: The U.S. is making 'irreversible' progress with Cyprus, a former Russian ally, in a tense corner of Europe. Turkey won't be happy.

Amid tensions in Europe, the U.S. is increasing its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region, a hotspot connecting three continents.

U.S. security cooperation with Cyprus was frozen decades ago to limit the amount of weapons on the island. Cyprus started buying weapons from Russia instead.

But in recent years Cyprus has moved away from Russia. In 2015 they ended the agreement that allowed Russian warships to dock in its ports. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the trend. Cyprus had a difficult maintaining its Russian-made weapons. It incentivized the search for a new partner.

The U.S. lifted the arms embargo in 2022.

Cyprus is replacing its Russian-made weapons. Cyprus might -- if it assesses that the Turkish army is no longer a threat -- send its old Russian-made weapons to Ukraine soon, after hosting Ukrainian troops for training. The Pentagon has been training Cypriot and Ukrainian officers in Cyprus lately.

In 2022 Cyprus signed a logistics agreement to allow U.S. forces to deploy on the island. Cypriot National Guard signed a partnership agreement with New Jersey National Guard.

FM of Cyprus: The main security challenge comes from the revisionist and aggressive behavior of Turkey. Ankara ignores international law and the rules-based international order, posing a threat to regional security and stability.

[full](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-cyprus-improve-relations-amid-russia-turkey-mediterranean-tensions-2023-8)

interview with military expert Leonid Nersisyan: AM-AZ military balance, jets, ATVs

REPORTER: What is the current state of the Armenian army?

LEONID: Compared to May 2021, when Azeris could just walk in and capture territory, things have significantly changed. We see that in borders that existed before 2021, not the newly drawn borders, the Armenian army is able to successfully defend.

In the newly formed borders problems do exist, but the situation is better now. The major clashes in September 2022 show that we have a lot of work to do, but it's evident that some lessons were learned. For example, we didn't concentrate many pieces of equipment close to each other, and some other improvements, but more needs to be done. There have been some improvements since September 2022 as well. It's not yet enough to intervene and physically defend Nagorno-Karabakh.

REPORTER: What lessons did Azerbaijan learn?

LEONID: They are modernizing their aviation. Su-25s are being modernized in Turkey to use Turkish long-range missiles. This will be a major threat, so Armenia needs to prepare for the future war, not the last war.

REPORTER: Azerbaijan wants to acquire Akıncı drones.

LEONID: Those might be easier to destroy than Bayraktar TB2s, but the problem is with the cruise missiles that they launch. We have to start working now if we want to intercept those missiles. The alternative is to have the means to destroy Azeri airfields that house their jets and drones.

Armenia also needs to automate and better organize its air defense systems. Your S-300 missiles should not be wasted on a Chinese DJI drone, unless you know it's headed towards a critical target. Sometimes it's best to let the drone fly.

REPORTER: Russia has not delivered weapons to Armenia despite the contracts, so we are acquiring weapons from India instead. India has a history of modernizing weapons and jets.

LEONID: We only have 4 units of Su-30SM jets, which is too little. The plan was to acquire another 4 but obviously that's not practical today. So we could think about acquiring other types of jets.

This will be difficult because manufacturers are busy with the Ukraine war today. Even the older Russian jets owned by Eastern European countries cannot be obtained and modernized because they are sending those to Ukraine.

We could try to acquire MiG-29 or French Mirage from India. Dealing with NATO states would be difficult...

REPORTER: Because of Armenia's membership to CSTO?

LEONID: ehmmmm, not just that. Look, everyone loves Swedish Gripens because of how light and small they are, making them great for Armenia, but they contain components from too many countries. You must obtain export permission from all of them. For example, the U.S. is very strict towards non-allies countries. You can waste years on that. If the U.S. *really really* wants you to have the weapons they can organize it in 24 hours, but Armenia isn't there yet.

REPORTER: History shows that we need a non-standard strategy since we're dealing with a stronger enemy. What's the solution?

LEONID: The disbalance between Armenia and Azerbaijan is being somewhat overestimated. The analysis of Azerbaijan's actions, them being in this hurry to get as much as possible while they still can, indicates that they, too, believe that in 5 years they won't be able to bully Armenia anymore. Armenia won't be in such a dire state to agree to any peace treaty.

This is reflected in the military budget. Armenia has increased its military budget to $1.2 billion. This is something that didn't appear even in dreams in the past.

If the current economic growth is maintained, we might see ~$2 billion soon. That could lead to practically symmetrical armies between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia must focus on military education, professionalism, and the better use of its terrain advantages. It's strange, but we've never paid attention to developing units that can fight in the mountains. If you're fighting in Syunik conditions, you can't just deploy the Soviet-style structures. Your troops need to use Enduro motorcycles and ATVs to climb a hill, fire the anti-tank missile, and off to the next hill.

REPORTER: Ukraine wants to produce 200,000 units of small drones annually to target trenches and small equipment. Videos show that these drones are helpful. Could Armenia duplicate the strategy?

LEONID: It's important to understand how many drones they waste before one of them can reach the target. The video you see doesn't tell you which attempt it was. Analysts from Britain estimate that 5,000 drones are lost each month. That's not a small sum if each unit costs $3,000.

Moreover, grenade-dropping drones are losing their popularity due to the losses in the drone fleet. Both sides are adapting. To drop a grenade, the drone has to fly very low, making it vulnerable. There is a trend to use these drones for recon instead.

Simultaneously, there is a general trend, not necessarily in Ukraine, to develop more autonomous drones that do not rely on GPS as much. You'd need to physically destroy it.

REPORTER: Can Armenia use AI to manufacture autonomous drones?

LEONID: It is a realistic goal to manufacture affordable weapons with high precision. If you remember, during the last major clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, Azerbaijani soldiers were complaining about "Armenian drones falling on their heads".

REPORTER: Is that related to their claims that Armenia was supposedly using Iranian drones?

LEONID: No. Azeris uploaded the remnants of the drones. They were manufactured in Armenia. Keep developing, keep buying.

[source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgbwhE5B1G0)

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/165sjlx/west_wants_to_deploy_intl_peacekeepers_convert/