2023 September 20

Daily news wrap-up

Nagorno-Karabakh lays down arms // Peacekeepers killed // Samvel Babayan's plan // Kremlin instructs media to blame Armenia and West: leak // Aliyev's message // Interviews // Kocharyan's audio message to Putin: AI or real?
by ar_david_hh

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day 2: Azerbaijan attacks Nagorno-Karabakh and civilians; tens of thousands evacuated so far

(Read the Tuesday coverage here: 2023 September 19)

On Wednesday the Azerbaijani army attacked an ambulance vehicle transporting several bodies to a morgue, injuring the driver.

Casualties: 200 killed (5 children), 400 wounded (15 children). The fate of many civilians is still unknown. People don't have access to basic necessities. Families have been separated.

The battles continued in the frontline for positional control. Nagorno-Karabakh said Azerbaijan was able to capture new positions and roads while sustaining losses.

A 4th-century Armenian monastery Amaras went under Azerbaijani control. It's located in the southeast of the republic.

The city of Martakert (northeast) was evacuated after Azerbaijan targeted civilian infrastructure and captured positions in that direction. Mass evacuations from the Askeran region: [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwSls56yicU?t=20).

The mayor of Martakert Aznavor Saghyan was killed during an attack last night. Ter Hovhannes Hovhannisyan, an abbot from Dadivank monastery, was injured as a result of the aggression. He is in a hospital.

... former adviser to the Nagorno-Karabakh government urges the President to make concessions

BEGLARYAN ARTAK: The authorities must make a bold and difficult decision very quickly while the public should accept it sensibly. This bloody genocide must be stopped as soon as possible. The losses are piling up while the enemy continues to encroach.

It's obvious that Russia and the West do not want to stop this. Their criminal silence supports Azerbaijan. //

Current and former Presidents of Nagorno-Karabakh held a meeting: The reaction of international actors is inadequate. No practical steps are being taken by them. We will have to make difficult concessions. //

... Kremlin justifies Azerbaijan's military aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh: "It's their land"

Putin's spokesman: We are talking about military operations on the territory of Azerbaijan, recognized by Armenia. The criticism towards our peacekeepers is unjustified. //

Putin's office later joined Azerbaijan and announced that there was no ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.

... Russia presents Nagorno-Karabakh a [ceasefire](https://factor.am/690557.html) plan: "lay down your arms"

Nagorno-Karabakh accepted the ceasefire offer. They will lay down their arms and agree to hold negotiations with Azerbaijan. It will take place on September 21st in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh. The topic will be "Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians' reintegration, rights, and security."

Under the ceasefire agreement, Russia will seize and remove all the heavy and lightweight military equipment owned by Nagorno-Karabakh's "10,000-strong army." Russia will supposedly send the equipment to Azerbaijan *[or Ukraine, who knows, it would be a shame if the defeat of Armenians ends up helping Russia against Ukraine right?]*.

... Armenia's PM Pashinyan responds to NK-AZ ceasefire agreement

PASHINYAN: An agreement was reached through Russia to establish a ceasefire. Armenia was not involved in preparing the text of this ceasefire agreement between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan.

The ceasefire text mentions armed forces of the "Republic of Armenia". We have said many times that the Republic of Armenia finished the withdrawal of its army from Nagorno-Karabakh in August 2021, so it's unclear why that language was used in the ceasefire agreement.

The fact that this ceasefire agreement even mentions the "Republic of Armenia" reaffirms my suspicions raised yesterday, that one of the goals of this attack was to drag Armenia into a major war and deprive it of its independence and sovereignty.

If the Russian peacekeepers made this offer [to disarm the local defense forces], it's logical to assume that from now on, they will FULLY and without any reservations assume the full responsibility for Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians' safety. That means a full set of conditions must be created to ensure the rights of Armenians to safely live in their homes with dignity. Although I must say that we were expecting that to be the case starting in November 2020. //

... why does the Russian ceasefire document mention the withdrawal of "Republic of Armenia" soldiers if they were withdrawn in 2021? || Interview with ex-MP Arman Babajanyan

BABAJANYAN: That was not by an error. It was done intentionally by Russia to clear Azerbaijan of wrongdoing for past/present/future aggression. It is a well-known fact that Armenia actually withdrew its conscripts and contractors from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2021. But Azerbaijan maintained the lie to use it against Armenia. Azerbaijan will use this to try to legitimize its aggression in the eyes of the international community, while Russia will try to cause problems in Armenia-West diplomatic cooperation. //

... ranking member of Armenia's ruling party about pro-Russian political forces in Armenia:

PAPOYAN GEVORG: What you see in front of the government building *[hundreds of protesters attacked the building, injured police]* is nothing new. It's the same old tactic: foreign and internal forces jointly attacking Armenia's statehood. Do not fall for the manipulations of the foreign-controlled 5th column.

... the chronology of events, by Informed Citizens NGO Daniel Ioannesian

IOANNESIAN: Let's recap the events that unfolded recently.

(1) Pro-Russian/Kocharyan forces come to power in Nagorno-Karabakh.

(2) Azerbaijan launches a large-scale assault, obviously with the permission of Russia judging from the Kremlin's response.

(3) Dmitri Medvedev hints that the Armenian government will be forcefully removed.

(4) The Russian propaganda machine blames everything on the Armenian government.

(5) Kocharyan's bolstered pro-Russian forces attack the Armenian government building.

(6) While possessing even more tanks and artillery than Armenia, the pro-Russian/Kocharyan government of Nagorno-Karabakh capitulates within a day.

It's understandable that Russia wants to turn Armenia into Belarus 2.0, but it is sad that some residents of Armenia are willing to join and act against national interests. //

... Operation Ring 2.0

ARA HAKOBYAN, politician: Right now we are losing territories of Nagorno-Karabakh in a similar way that we lost Shahumyan during Operation Ring. Under the watch of Russian soldiers, Azerbaijan is currently removing ethnic Armenians from their lands.

We had a similar situation during the Sumgayit massacres when Russian soldiers stood by, and once the job was done, they would escort residents out so they could earn the title of savior. The exact same scenario is unfolding today.

Putin and Erdogan met not long ago in Sochi. They must have reached an agreement to allow this attack. Russia must have secured something in return. Time will tell what Russia's prize is. //

... "there was an agreement between Erdogan and Putin": Valeri Solovei, Russian opposition figure

REPORTER: Why did Azerbaijan conduct its Russian-style "special military operation" now? How do you explain the timing?

SOLOVEI: The agreement was reached between Erdogan and Putin on September 4th. By the way, that was the only topic they agreed around. Erdogan asked Putin if he would mind an operation against Nagorno-Karabakh and *maybe* Armenia too. Putin gave the green light. This information was leaked immediately. I can verify its authenticity.

REPORTER: Why did Putin take a 180 turn compared to 2020 when he was against Turkish activities in the region?

SOLOVEI: First. Just as in 2020, Putin wants Pashinyan gone because he hates anything that resembles a color revolution and democracy.

Second. Russia couldn't resist Turkey today even if it wanted to. Russia depends on Turkey's transit hubs and other partnerships.

Third. Putin no longer gives a crap about anything. He wants to leave chaos behind him. He is proud of the chaos he creates around the world.

REPORTER: Armenia's First Lady went to Ukraine with aid, Armenia is ratifying the Rome Statute, and Armenia is hosting U.S. soldiers. The following might be the Kremlin's response: Russian regulator has declared Armenian cognac as an unwanted product on the territory of Russia. The same had happened to Georgian wine. How did this AM-RU conflict start?

SOLOVEI: Armenians finally understood that Russia doesn't plan to help them so they began to search for other defense partners. Russia is using that in an attempt to pin the blame on Armenia: *"You abandoned us for the West."*

REPORTER: How will this end for Nagorno-Karabakh?

SOLOVEI: Azerbaijan will assume physical control of Nagorno-Karabakh. A significant portion of ethnic Armenians will leave. Some elements of self-governance will be granted.

REPORTER: How will this end for Pashinyan?

SOLOVEI: Unfortunately for the Kremlin, there is still no strong reaction against Pashinyan. The Kremlin was expecting a much stronger wave of anger and a pro-Russian revolution.

Russia should expect the collapse of CSTO. Armenia will certainly exit it soon, followed by Kazakhstan in early 2024. The Kazakh president Tokayev has already informed Putin about their plans to leave CSTO. //

... leak reveals Putin's plan to instruct its media outlets to blame everything on Pashinyan and the West

[The leak](https://factor.am/690694.html) was published by the Russian media outlet Meдuza. According to the report, Putin's office sent instructions to its media outlets on September 19.

They advise them to blame the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh on Armenia and the West.

The Kremlin also wants the Russian peacekeepers to be portrayed as merely "observers" who are assisting in the evacuation of the population.

The Kremlin also wants the Russian Orthodox Church in Nagorno-Karabakh to get credit for housing IDPs.

... ex-PM Armen Babajanyan about NK-AZ negotiations || Samvel Babayan's ignored plan

BABAJANYAN: The November 9, 2020, agreement is in the deathbed. Enter Lavrov Plan and the full "integration" of Armenians into Azerbaijan. Of course you should not expect Russian peacekeepers to ensure the safety of Armenian civilians. Only residents who are incapable of leaving will stay in Nagorno-Karabakh, giving Russia just enough Armenian presence to maintain its troops in the region.

As Lavrov has stated [in March 2023, months *before* Pashinyan's "clarification" of Azerbaijan's 86,600 km² territorial integrity], Russia wants Armenians in Azerbaijan to have the same rights as the Serbs in Kosovo, meaning no rights, no local governing bodies.

That is what Samvel Babayan's critics wanted. They ignored his repeated warnings to hold a meeting with Azerbaijan as soon as possible to negotiate from more dignified positions. I can reveal its content now:

Those documents contained very dignified terms for Nagorno-Karabakh. *At the time*, Azerbaijan agreed to negotiate the formation of essentially an autonomous republic within Azerbaijan with its own small number of guards.

But the [Nagorno-Karabakh authorities] rejected it and Russia eventually dragged them to a full capitulation. Now this will help Russia destabilize Armenia and hijack power in Yerevan. We must be prepared to fight for our statehood. //

... Gen. Samvel Babayan offered his support to establish a ceasefire and negotiate with Azerbaijan, got rejected again

HAYK KHANUMYAN, politician: Yesterday I spoke with President Shahramanyan and conveyed that at this difficult moment, Samvel Babayan is ready to take full responsibility and negotiate with Azerbaijan.

The President agreed to host Babayan. However, presumably under the pressure of Bako Sahakyan and Arkadi Ghukasyan [ex-regime that returned to power] he later changed his mind and rescinded Babayan's invitation. The President said they were in touch with Azerbaijan through Russian mediation to reach a ceasefire agreement. //

... interview with journalist Tatul Hakobyan

REPORTER: What happened? Why was the government changed in Nagorno-Karabakh? Why did they miss the opportunity to reach a more favorable outcome a month ago?

TATUL: Azerbaijan was demanding the removal of heavy equipment from Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia had already withdrawn its army from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2021. Azerbaijan's new demand was the removal of heavy equipment owned by the Nagorno-Karabakh army. There weren't that many to begin with due to the blockade.

Russia made an offer to Nagorno-Karabakh: Give your equipment to us and you'll maintain something like a national guard consisting of internal forces. That offer was being discussed. *[and the now-former president of Nagorno-Karabakh Arayik Harutyunyan had already agreed to remove the equipment and they even managed to remove dozens of tanks and vehicles before the war, but the process was stopped for reasons unclear]*

TATUL continues: Nagorno-Karabakh's new president Shahramanyan discussed Russia's offer to remove the equipment during various internal meetings. There were likely very sharp objections, prompting him to "go until the end". They miscalculated.

REPORTER: You and Samvel Babayan had been urging them to go for a compromise.

TATUL: Vitali Balasanyan *[NK official who negotiated with Azerbaijan under Arayik administration]* and I had a complicated past but as soon as I learned he was negotiating with Azerbaijan, I was one of the few public figures at the time who praised that decision. We cannot trust Russia, the U.S., or anyone else. The best guarantee for security is holding negotiations with Turks. If you don't, you end up capitulating like this. This is a capitulation.

REPORTER: Who is at fault?

TATUL: From 1994-1998, the "traitor" president LTP was ready to resolve the conflict but the 1998 coup stopped it. The 2020 loss is of course the fault of the current government in Armenia. That's just how it works. But the September 20 capitulation is the fault of the current Nagorno-Karabakh government that came to power a few weeks ago.

The priority right now should be to save the people of Nagorno-Karabakh:

(1) We must discuss the possibility of evacuating NK residents. Anyone who dared to speak about this a month ago was deemed a traitor. Now it's necessary.

(2) Will Russian peacekeepers stay? We only have 2 years left. Ignore Maria Zakharova and Margarita Simonyan and establish good relations with Russia.

(3) If peacekeepers will stay, find out if it'll be possible for ethnic Armenians of NK to continue to live in their homes. No one should be "forced" to live there.

(4) Former leaders of Armenia must speak up and comfort the public. I think LTP predicted this day with 100% accuracy. In 1998 he said, "We will all answer for leading our people to another catastrophe." Kocharyan and Serj should speak, too.

(5) When this is all over, it will be time for new elections again. It's necessary after each major event.

REPORTER: Why does the ceasefire agreement accuse the Republic of Armenia of having an army in Nagorno-Karabakh when in reality it doesn't?

TATUL: That language was added by Russia and Azerbaijan. The latter will undoubtedly try to use it against Armenia during the UNSC session. But I wouldn't hyperfocus on it.

... interview with Armenian defense official Andranik Kocharyan

REPORTER: Explain the latest events.

ANDRANIK: The new government of Nagorno-Karabakh, joined by all previous leaders and other figures, discussed and approved Azerbaijan's ceasefire terms during a meeting with Russian peacekeepers.

Notably missing from the meeting was Samvel Babayan, who had been urging for months to hold dialogue with Azerbaijan to buy more time for Nagorno-Karabakh *and* Armenia.

REPORTER: It wasn't just the Nagorno-Karabakh government. The opposition parties in Armenia were also against meeting Azerbaijan. They considered any dialogue with Azerbaijan as capitulation.

ANDRANIK: And that's when Ruben Vardanyan appears in Nagorno-Karabakh and receives a ranking position from President Arayik. His mission was murky. He began advocating for Nagorno-Karabakh to reject anything and everything that connects them to Azerbaijan, any dialogue. Where was Ruben Vardanyan during the ceasefire signing?

REPORTER: If we could launch the negotiations a month ago from better positions, why didn't we go for it? Today we have chaos, deaths, and ultimatums.

ANDRANIK: Today a thought crossed my mind: the 2020 war ended today during that meeting between Nagorno-Karabakh leaders and Russian peacekeepers. So the question is, why did Arayik resign and sit on that advisory board right next to the new president? Will Arayik testify to the War Commission?

Because by judging from the events surrounding the 2016, 2020, and 2023 wars, it seems that the strings are being pulled from outside Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The producer of this show has his own interests and plans. If they were going to sign this ceasefire agreement, why didn't they do so months ago that would have granted the Armenian side a stronger role in the process?

REPORTER: Where are the puppet masters?

ANDRANIK: [Russia]. Their puppets have just been activated in Armenia.

REPORTER: [asks about the efforts to strengthen Armenia's army]

ANDRANIK: We are building fortifications that should have been built 20 years ago. Within 5 months we created reinforced regions without publicly advertising it.

REPORTER: What are those?

ANDRANIK: Engineering structures that will allow us to defend our borders with minimal human losses.

REPORTER: We have been building new fortifications?

ANDRANIK: Yes.

REPORTER: What are they?

ANDRANIK: Structures that strong and developed countries like France and Germany build.

REPORTER: Where are they?

ANDRANIK: On borders. Especially on the second line of defense. These second lines didn't even *exist* until now. In Nagorno-Karabakh, I think they managed to build just a single similar structure right before the 2020 war. We sustained 0 deaths and 0 wounded in that location. It was done by Gen. Grigoryan, the same guy in charge of our engineering forces today.

... EU and France call on Azerbaijan to ensure dignified treatment for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh

CHARLES MICHEL: This morning, I called on President Aliyev to ensure a complete cease-fire and a safe, dignified treatment of Karabakh Armenians by Azerbaijan. Human rights and security must be ensured. //

... Azerbaijani president "recognizes Armenia's territorial integrity", cites Azeri army losses and "mission already accomplished" for agreeing to the ceasefire with Nagorno-Karabakh

ALIYEV: They unexpectedly demonstrated political competence. We appreciate it and consider it an important step. These events will have a positive impact on the peace process. This will create long-term peace in the South Caucasus. Armenia should feel confident that we do not have eyes on Armenian lands. Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity of Armenia. We would have gone until the end had they not lay down their arms in Karabakh. However, our military also has losses. The Armenian population of Karabakh are citizens of Azerbaijan. We want to coexist with peace based on mutual respect and mutual understanding. //

... peacekeepers were ambushed and killed in Nagorno-Karabakh in a territory controlled by Russians and Azeris

Russia's MOD revealed that one of the peacekeeping vehicles was returning from its observation point when it was ambushed by rifle fire. Everyone in the vehicle was killed. Russian and Azerbaijani authorities are conducting a joint investigation.

While making no mention of the attackers' identity, Russia's foreign ministry chose to trashtalk "ungrateful" critics instead:

MARIA ZAKHAROVA: "Նրանք [peacekeepers] զոհվել են հանուն տարածաշրջանում խաղաղության։ Ապերախտությունը, որով ոչ մաքրասեր մարդիկ փորձեցին կասկածի տակ դնել նրանց գործունեությունը, չի ստվերի ընկածների սխրանքը, այլ կդառնա զրպարտիչների հավերժ խարանը" //

... Kocharyan allegedly sent an audio message to Putin revealing their post-2018 plan || Kocharyan says the audio is an AI fake

[Here is the audio](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C26UzTNgAxE?t=276). The breathing and pauses make it sound authentic although I'm not an AI expert. Can the AI replicate a high-quality speech in the *Armenian* language? This is what the voice says:

VOICE: Since my [re]entry into politics in 2018 and the active resistance to the current government took place under our mutual agreement [with Putin], I'd like to ask you to ensure my planned exit from this situation. Living and working here in Armenia like a hostage while having a constant target on my back is unacceptable. Your opinion has a decisive power here. I'm not in the position to go against your will so I'd like to ask you to secure my planned exist from this situation. //

Kocharyan believes the "AI fake" audio is a preemptive political strike meant to harm his future activities. He said his last phone call with Putin was in 2021 but did not deny sending this as a pre-recorded message afterward. If the audio is real, it is still unclear whether it's new or it was recorded in 2019-2020 while he was in/facing jail.

• [source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/269560)
• [source,](https://hetq.am/hy/article/160322)
• [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66EsH3r9BzQ?t=5)
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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/16nwswo/nagornokarabakh_lays_down_arms_peacekeepers/