2021 June 21

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Daily news wrap-up

Jun/21/2021: (1) Election observers: Gaussian graph indicates fair elections, brief power outage had no impact on results, briberies by opposition, Kocharyan's suspicious victory in few precincts (2) Pashinyan's victory speech (3) Russia & Europe congratulate Pashinyan (4) Kocharyan won't concede
by ar_david_hh


This is your 14-minute Monday report in 3530 words. Today we're covering the election outcome and observers' findings.

in case you missed: election day live feed

https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/o4b1gj/news_jun202021_1_elections_in_armenia_2_voting/?

Translated in Russian by Impossible-Ad-

https://www.reddit.com/r/ArmDailyReports_RUS_/comments/o4c1y6/все_новости_за_20_июня_2021это_ваш_семиминутный/

electoral commission chief presents the results

Pashinyan's Civil Contract party (QP): 53.92%

Kocharyan and ARF's "Armenia" alliance: 21.04%

Serj and Vanetsyan's "I Have Honor" alliance: 5.23%

Gagik Tsarukyan's Bright Armenia (BHK) party: 3.96% *(loses all current seats)*

Edmon Marukyan's Bright Armenia (LHK) party: 1.22% *(loses all current seats)*

https://youtu.be/_VWZb-fTi6w https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056032.html

Redditors analyze the results

bokavitch believes Pashinyan had a significant "hidden" voter base among the undecided voters who were surveyed.

~~Idontknowmuch~~ bokavitch calculated the average of polls by MPG/Gallup and EVN and found the results to be approximate in line with predictions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/o3xvfl/armenian_elections_megathread_20210620/h2hjz57/

where did Kocharyan perform the best?

Yerevan was the only "province" where Pashinyan scored below 50%: Pashinyan 145,000 (42.3%) and Kocharyan 93,000 votes.

Kocharyan had a clear lead in Yerevan's Center-Norq Marash and Arabkir districts. It's 20k vs 18.2k, and 17.6k vs 15k respectively.

Pashinyan was on top in Yerevan's Zeytun and Avan districts but scored below Kocharyan-Serj-Levon combined.

Nor Norq was a tie between Pashinyan vs Kocharyan-Serj-Levon.

Pashinyan had a clear lead in the Yerevan suburbs. He picked up Malatia, Ajapnyak, Shengavit, Erebuni, and Nubarashen.

https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/293782/

Pashinyan wins enough votes to form a government / surveys, exit-polls

The ruling party will have 71 out of 107 (?) Parliamentary seats. The official distribution is in seven days.

Ruling party member Arayik: Our party will gain 3 ethnic minority seats and end up having 71. We will be able to adopt/amend laws relating to the Constitution [needs a fact check]. The forces that entered Parliament will have the disqualified parties' shares "distributed" among them; that's about 20% of votes. [the top three won 80%]

Q: Russian RIA Novosti recently published a poll claiming QP would lose.

I would like our journalists to ask RIA where they got those fake "surveys" from because our internal polling, conducted recently, showed the exact outcome as we have today, which is 3-3.5x above the opposition. It also matched the exit polls.

We have many fake pollsters. The public should shun them. Gallup International Association is one example. From now on, you cannot trust them.

Q: what is the purpose [of faking polls]?

They become part of an X force's propaganda machine and attempt to develop a certain atmosphere. Back in January, we were warned that Gallup International Association and other pollsters will be hired by our opponents and that our support levels will be gradually [artificially] decreased the closer we get to elections, while raising the challenger's numbers. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056036.html https://factor.am/385377.html https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216790 https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216762

ruling party MP demands Armenia TV retract "fake news" claiming fireworks were fired to celebrate victory

QP Arayik Harutyunyan said they will consider legal action unless the outlet retracts the "defamatory" claim.

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216764

Artsakh president congratulates Pashinyan with victory and wishes Kocharyan good luck

President Arayik: Dear Mr. Pashinyan, snap elections were the logical solution to the unstable internal political situation in Armenia after the 44-day war. I am happy that Armenia was able to organize democratic elections, despite internal and external challenges.

Considering the preliminary results, I wish you and your team success. I hope your victory will allow the Armenian government to strengthen security and diplomacy, restore internal peace, work towards the Artsakh population's rights and Artsakh's Republic's international recognition.

I also wish good luck to the other political forces that have gained some trust from the people. I am convinced that every vote received must serve the national interests. //

President Arayik visited Yerevan to meet Pashinyan and opposition parties. His opponents, unhappy with the visit, held a protest in front of the president's office in Artsakh.

Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056056.html https://factor.am/385508.html https://youtu.be/eeEtyKnxdlw

Pashinyan visited Yerablur military pantheon

He laid flowers and met families of fallen soldiers. He also kneeled in front of legendary Andranik Ozanyan's and ex-MOD Vazgen Sargsyan's tombstones.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056060.html https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=532205271142032

five arrested in Artik under the suspicion of voter bribery for an opposition alliance

Investigators said: Artik, Shirak residents were offered bribes in exchange for voting for an alliance. The raids in 12 apartments uncovered evidence and large sums. Five have been arrested.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056053.html

one arrested in Masis under the suspicion of voter bribery for an opposition alliance

Prosecutors said: we received evidence that a group of individuals paid $40 bribes to Masis residents in exchange for voting for an alliance. K.G. has been arrested. The investigation continues.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056073.html

Electoral Commission authorizes the arrest of Kocharyan teammate who was caught on tape

Kocharyan-ARF alliance's #20 candidate Armen Charchyan is the director of Izmirlyan hospital. An audiotape was leaked in which he allegedly pressures employees not to vote for Pashinyan, threatening with *"there are algorithms that can reveal whom you voted for"*.

Prosecutors believe he broke the law. They asked the Electoral Commission for permission to arrest him. The Commission gave the authorization today.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056106.html

Transparency International observers about the elections:

Overall, the election process was well organized and smooth, without major violations.

There was some tension in some locations due to voter guidance and violation of secrecy. The lion's share of violations came from Armenia Alliance [Kocharyan-ARF].

https://factor.am/385181.html https://youtu.be/fIcleI8abS4

Electorical Commission about the number and types of recorded violations

89 incidents in total. 64 about attempting to vote twice or attempting to vote for someone else, 19 violating voting secrecy, 1 entering polling station with a gun and fighting outside, 1 obstructing an observer, 2 not allowing a citizen to vote, 1 assaulting someone outside a polling station, 1 creating a fake ballot.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056057.html

observer Ankakh Ditord about bribery and other violations:

We recorded 52 significant incidents and reported 9 felonies. That brings the total reports throughout the campaign to 30, the vast majority of which was about bribery and illegal pressure on voters. Many of the bribery reports were relating to Armenia Alliance [Kocharyan-ARF].

Fewer reports arrived regarding abuse of administrative resources by the ruling party when it came to campaign rally participation.

We observed a tendency of voters not being given the ruling party's ballot in some polling stations [so they couldn't cast for Pashinyan with the envelope]. In one instance, we received a similar report about missing QP ballots from a [non-former regime] opposition party.

One of the [former regime opposition] alliances raised the alarm yesterday that the police were raiding their offices in Yerevan's Erebuni district. The raid was conducted after we reported alleged bribe distribution by their office. //

https://factor.am/385295.html https://youtu.be/ii_MHQp-WDI https://factor.am/385325.html https://youtu.be/ZFrnrlCmpqs

update: Masis mayor, a Serj's ally, is accused of voter bribery

Yesterday we learned that the authorities made several arrests in Noramarg, a Masis "suburb", over alleged bribery for Serj-Vanetsyan's Pativ Unem (I Have Honor) alliance.

Masis is run by Serj's ally Davit Hambardzumyan who, after the 2018 revolution, was charged with leading a masked gang and assaulting peaceful pro-Pashinyan protesters.

Today the media reported that Masis mayor Hambardzumyan is "on the run" because one of the alleged bribe-givers is his friend, and that the latter testified against Hambardzumyan.

Hambardzumyan denied the reports and said he isn't running anywhere. He gave his location.

Yesterday we also learned that Serj's Pativ Unem alliance won the elections in another Masis suburb Nizami with 35% of votes, against Pashinyan's 20%.

https://factor.am/385370.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1055991.html https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216667 https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216724

Gaussian distribution algorithm shows the elections were democratic

An observer presented a graph *(Gaussian distribution)* that takes into account participation/votes/etc. and determines whether the elections were likely rigged. The graph shows that these elections were democratic, says the observer.

Observer: [presents the election curve] this is what a democratic election graph should look like. We have observed this since 2018. Despite the earlier presented violations, we can say that the 2021 snap elections were democratic and competitive.

https://factor.am/385311.html https://youtu.be/T7ASSTGQzKY

observer found suspiciously high turnout numbers in a few polling stations where Kocharyan-ARF won "disproportionately"

Observer: in a few polling stations, we have a suspiciously high voter turnout. In these locations, the Kocharyan-ARF alliance outperformed significantly compared to other places. That leads up to believe there could have been serious falsifications in these locations, in favor of the alliance.

We will attempt to investigate and report the results to law enforcement. It's about a couple of locations. The results were illogically different. We will publish the polling station numbers later.

https://youtu.be/XrV6zHppNpg https://factor.am/385305.html

international observers say electric outage had no impact on election results

The power went out for a brief period yesterday in several provinces, mostly in areas where Pashinyan was expected to win overwhelmingly. A concerned ruling party MP urged the opposition not to "play games" and for observers to keep an eye on ballot boxes.

The electric grid network later revealed the blackout was a result of issues in neighboring Georgia and wasn't intentional. *"Three minutes after the outage we connected the provinces' grid to the Armenian energy network."* Georgia fixed the issue within an hour but the Armenian regulator kept the provinces connected to the Armenian network to avoid repeated interruptions.

In Spitak, the electoral commission closed the ballot box in front of observers when the outage struck, to prevent any possible falsifications.

The electoral commission chief dismissed conspiracy theories relating to the outage, saying they had the necessary backup batteries to continue with their work, and that the "cameras immediately reconnected once the power returned."

CIS and CSTO observers said the power outage was a minor incident, technical in nature, and could not have affected the election outcome.

OSCE/ODIHR said the outage did not affect their observers' mission.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056049.html https://factor.am/385205.html https://youtu.be/mODzrHeGVqs https://factor.am/385208.html https://youtu.be/IntuRBW9yyk?t=115 https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216803 https://www.civilnet.am/news/623398/սպիտակի-թիվ-22-21-ընտրատեղամասը՝-հոսանքազրկված

Russian, CIS, and CSTO observers announce that the elections were fair

No serious violations were observed that could have affected the election outcome, said CIS today, joining their CSTO counterparts.

The CIS observers, consisting of delegates from Russia, Belarus, and other ex-Soviet states, had visited 700 polling stations. *"The elections were organized and held in accordance with the requirements of the Constitution and the Electoral Code,"* said delegation chief E. Nematov.

Viktor Smirnov, an observer sent by Russian's Federation Council, said the elections were fair and that their observers did not find significant violations. *"The small violations were technical in nature and could not influence the results."*

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056058.html https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/o4b1gj/news_jun202021_1_elections_in_armenia_2_voting/ https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056077.html

OSCE/ODIHR observers give a positive evaluation to the "well-organized" elections

The observers said the vast majority of their delegation agrees with a positive mark. They said the elections were well organized and competitive.

They complained about polarized rhetoric by participants and noted a lack of enough female candidates during campaigns. Some polling stations did not have disability accommodations.

The vote counting was transparent. *"The deep polarization did not hinder the well-organized elections."* The delegation chief says all participants had an opportunity to freely campaign and that the fundamental rights have been respected.

The delegation chief hopes that *"despite the political polarization, we hope that the election results will be accepted by everyone."*

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056092.html https://youtu.be/s12kuYMEWTA https://youtu.be/VmP-x0oLr80

OSCE/ODIHR observers report certain improvements compared to 2018 elections

Observer 1: Armenia has implemented some of our recommendations made after 2018, specifically about female MPs on the ballots.

Observer 2: The 2018 elections were very positive and democratic. I believe these elections were similarly good but let's wait for the final report.

https://factor.am/385421.html https://youtu.be/VY1zdRTbOVo

President of the European Council congratulates Pashinyan with victory

Charles Michel: congratulations on the victory. The European Union stands by Armenia and will help with the effective implementation of deep reforms. We're ready to help stabilize the region and resolve the conflicts.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056110.html

Russian Parliament official Viktor Vodolatski about the elections:

Armenian citizens have voted in favor of deepening relations with Russia. The anti-Russian forces did not even score 1%. The turnout was high and the lines were long in some polling stations.

I believe the top priority for many voters were socio-economic issues and strengthening relations with Russia. They are the voters who voted including for Nikol Pashinyan.

The losing parties should make a difficult decision and sit at the negotiating table and agree in favor of Armenia. Do not take people to the streets, do not provoke clashes. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056066.html

Russian Defense Minister congratulates Armenian counterpart with victory

Vagharshak and Shoygu held a phone conversation. Shoygu congratulated the ruling party on the victory.

They also discussed the Syunik and Gegharkunik borders. The two expressed satisfaction with the "dynamic development of Armenian-Russian cooperation in the defense field."

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056114.html

Vladimir Putin's spokesman about the elections:

We congratulate the Armenian people on the elections. We see that Pashinyan's party won with confidence. We want these elections to help Armenian people overcome the difficulties that exist today, and to be on a stable course of development.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056068.html

Georgia's Premier congratulated Pashinyan with victory

I look forward to working closely with the new government, said Gharibashvili.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056104.html

Kocharyan-ARF does not accept the election results, will challenge in Constitutional Court

Yesterday, the Kocharyan-ARF alliance said they do not accept the results because they believed Pashinyan was less popular. Today, the "5165" and "Azgayin-Jhoghovrdavarakan Bever" parties joined the list of protesters.

Kocharyan will challenge the results in the Constitutional Court where a slim majority of judges is believed, by some, to be "allied" with the former authorities. Ruling party member Arayik Harutyunyan believes the Court will certify the results.

https://youtu.be/wycyieseY7E https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056108.html https://factor.am/385377.html

Serj-Vanetsyan alliance criticizes fellow opposition parties: *"we told you it was a bad idea to hold elections now"*

The Pativ Unem alliance also complained about the election fairness and said the results won't resolve the issues.

https://factor.am/385518.html

other opposition parties accepted the results and released statements

Republic party's Aram Sargsyan thanked his voters and hopes that the winning parties will work in the interests of Armenia. He wished the new parliament a fruitful journey.

Babajanyan-Shirinyan said the elections were democratic and free, and that any attempt to question and review the results will be a *"blow to Armenia's stability on its path to recovery"*. He congratulated the QP party.

Fair Armenia leader Norikyan was satisfied with gaining 4,000 votes with a party that's only 4 months old. He hopes for Armenia to move forward. *"Each of us must take into account the new situation in the political field, the radical change of the political mosaic."*

Ethnical Armenian member of Turkish Parliament Garo Paylan also congratulated Pashinyan.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056075.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056079.html

opposition Bright Armenia (LHK) concedes defeat and the loss of all Parliamentary seats

LHK chief Edmon "classic" Marukyan thanked his voters. He said their message has been about ensuring internal peace, and that the only way to achieve that was scheduling snap elections, and that they succeed in achieving the goal.

Marukyan said he respects people's decisions and vowed to continue with efforts to restore internal peace. LHK will participate in upcoming regional elections this Autumn.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056088.html

opposition Gen. Samvel Babayan congratulates the winners

Babayan: as I've said earlier, there are no "winners and losers" in these elections. People have made their choice and won. Congratulations, let all your expectations come true.

I thank our party's 14,935 voters and congratulate the parties that won seats. Put your personal interests aside and serve the public. We need a strong Constitution. Every citizens' rights must be defended.

I hope the political forces will find the strength not to divide the public and add shocks in these difficult times, and instead, will unite the people for a strong state. //

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216828

suspect arrested over yesterday's windshield shooting

The anti-Kocharyan alliance "Babajanyan-Shirinyan" announced that someone shot at their vehicle windshield in the morning and that the neighbors saw the suspect wearing a mask.

The media has learned from the Investigative Committee that one person has been arrested and will be charged under Article 235.1.

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/216798

surprise

Remember OEK (Orinats Yerkir) party? Not only do they still exist, but their leader Arthur Baghdasaryan released a statement today congratulating Armenians with "rejecting bribery and money", saying that free will/economy/speech has prevailed.

He congratulated Pashinyan and Kocharyan and urged smaller parties to consolidate powers to form larger ones. *"Having 25 participants is why only 3 made it in parliament."*

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056089.html

Pashinyan holds a large victory rally in Yerevan's Republic Square

QP Alen Simonyan: for you to understand what happened yesterday: we won everywhere except for a few locations.

Syunik province 53.3%. Meghri 53.6%. Agarak 51.1%. Goris 51.8%. We do have some locations with under 50% but we still won. Shurnukh border village 44.9%. Gyumri 61.5%. Vanadzor 57.5%. Yerevan 40.6% (still above Kocharyan).

They even suffered defeat in their own villages because elections cannot be rigged anymore. They were brought down to their knees because they dared to make a vile statement about the people [zjekh, uneducated] //

Pashinyan had a more reconciliatory tone: we were debating internally whether to hold today's rally because I can see your sleepy eyes. Many of you were awake all night to follow the results.

We are acknowledging that the internal crisis that began on November 9 is now over. Tomorrow we begin to return to full work. But the conditions are significantly different now because you have given us the mandate to establish the "dictatorship of law". The people carried out a Steel Revolution.

According to all observers, the elections met the democratic standards and were fully legitimate. The observers did, however, notice that some aggressive rhetoric has been used. I don't want to touch upon who started and when.

I invite the opposition to start from a simple point: let's stop with slurs. Let's start with me and my allies. I urge my allies to end the slurs, aggression, and hostility. A new page is opening. We must start it with unity.

This doesn't mean we will refrain from carrying out our duties. [vows to ensure rule of law works]

You know that returning what was stolen from people has been a hot topic. We did not take anything from anyone, even if we had the ability. We want to have institutes that are outside of political influence.

And today, the mechanism of confiscation of illegally obtained property is set in motion. Those who have such issues can negotiate with the state to voluntarily return the stolen property. I urge them not to lose the opportunity and to cooperate beginning today before the [law enforcement acts].

Beginning tomorrow morning, I will launch political consultations with those political forces that want to talk.

[He made remarks regarding the church by reading the bible.]

Unfortunately, some forces have again attempted to, for narrow political interests, to put a wedge between Artsakh and Armenia. This is unacceptable. Armenian people and the Armenian government was/is/will be by the Artsakh people. Let's clap right now to show we are determined to the fair resolution of the Artsakh conflict under the "secession for salvation" principle.

Those who filled their pockets for years while stoking division between "Hayastantsi" and "Artsakhtsi" will fail. Give up on it. I beg and I demand.

Dozens of aid programs were launched. Not one Artsakh resident was left without aid. Armenia and diaspora have launched a ֏100 billion investment program for housing and infrastructure, more than all the previous similar programs combined since the 1990s [relating to All Armenia Fund].

[talks about economic plans, thanks the police and judicial system for the work during the elections, holds a minute of silence for servicemen who died during the war]

https://factor.am/385438.html https://youtu.be/XhvBc9RCpBU

Armenia's PACE delegation raises the topic of POWs, quotes Aliyev's own words, calls for sanctions

Delegate QP Tatevik Hayrapetyan cited a conversation between Ilham Aliyev and Erdogan's wife while they were traveling to Shushi on a train.

Delegate Hayrapetyan: When asked by Mrs. Erdogan whether there are Armenian captives, Aliyev said "yes, many", to which Mrs. Erdogan responded urging him to release them gradually [in exchange for landmine maps].

It's been half a year since AM-AZ-RU signed a ceasefire statement. Armenia has done its obligations while Azerbaijan refuses to release POWs. Then they come here [PACE] and brag that they released 15 POWs. Thank you very much, but I'd like to remind you that it is your obligation to release all POWs ASAP.

Delegate BHK Zohrabyan: if Azerbaijan does not understand the language of civilized law, sanctions must be applied. Do not forget that they killed 19 POWs. Freeze Azeri delegations' powers and place arrest on properties belonging to Ilham Aliyev, his family, and other officials responsible for the crimes.

Full: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=179406630802340 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056086.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056097.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056112.html

Paris Rapid & Blitz chess: Levon Aronian defeats Azeri opponent Rajabov

Currently at 6th place.

https://factor.am/385578.html

COVID stats

2768 tested. 26 infected. 63 healed. 1 death. 2547 active.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056044.html

==pandemic caused a 1/3rd drop in foreign direct investments across the world

A UN agency said the investments went from $1.5t to $1t compared to 2019. They expect a 10-15% increase this year.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1056072.html

earthquake evacuation training in 120 schools across Armenia

Yerevan's 2-story #40 school building was evacuated in 59 seconds under the emergency alarm. " Those in 1-2 floors leave the area. Those on higher floors should take cover under desks. Do not use elevators."

https://factor.am/385387.html https://youtu.be/UhDAzasmRJ8

end of report

The accused are innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "appear" guilty.

News archive: http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

Donations: soldiers' families, humanitarian aid, US tax-deductible donation.


Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/o54ch6/jun212021_1_election_observers_gaussian_graph/

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