2023 November 3

Daily news wrap-up

Mountain warfare training: India & France /// Armenia to "unlock" exports to EU by joining accreditation union /// Cognac drama /// Korea offers nuclear plant; Black Sea power line /// FM Mirzoyan's speech /// Green hydrogen /// Economy & crime
by ar_david_hh

---

• 11-minute. Thanks for reading Transcaucasian Telegraph.*

FM Mirzoyan about AM-AZ negotiations:

It is unfortunate that Ilham Aliyev decided not to attend the recent Granada meeting. Nevertheless, a 4-way meeting took place and a document was adopted that by in large reflects the terms necessary for a long-term and dignified peace in our region.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have exchanged proposals for a peace agreement six times. Let me remind you again what the necessary terms are: mutual recognition of territorial integrity with specific km^2 and Soviet-era borders, border delimitation with the latest Soviet-era maps from 1974-1978, and the unblocking of regional communication routes while respecting sovereignty. Armenia would like to resume the use of Meghri railway, Gyumri-Kars railway, and other roads and railways. This is the Crossroad of Peace.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDXl6HMkmTk)

FM Mirzoyan about AM-TR relations:

I met the FM of Turkey in Tehran during the recent 3+3 summit. I'm optimistic that the AM-TR borders might open soon for citizens of third countries (tourists) and diplomats. The resumption of others' movement will be discussed during the next phase. Armenia wants to have normal relations with all four neighbors.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhOBF7N9o68)

Turkey's Erdogan uses the phrase "transport link" instead of "Zangezur corridor"

ERDOGAN: We are a step closer to permanent peace in the region. Our greatest desire is to take advantage of the new opportunity. Armenia should fulfill its obligations towards Azerbaijan *[Context: Armenia has agreed to open the trade route. Azerbaijan is creating barriers with additional demands]*. The implementation of the transport link connecting Nakhijevan to the western regions of Azerbaijan is of great importance. This will significantly contribute to the prosperity of all states in the region, and will also connect Turkey to our ancestral homeland of Central Asia. //

[source,](https://factor.am/707500.html)

how will the unblocking of regional trade communications affect Armenia's economy?

KEROBYAN, MinEconom: There are new and old estimates suggesting that Armenia's GDP will grow by approximately 30% within a short period of time. We agree with this assessment. The peace alone is going to significantly increase investments. Next year we will allocate funds to request a new independent assessment.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtGItyE0X0Q)

parliament leader Alen Simonyan criticizes Russia for attempting to micromanage Armenia's foreign policy

Context: Armenia's NatSec Armen Grigoryan met a Ukrainian official during an international summit held in Malta. They discussed the AM-UA relations. Russia called the meeting a "hostile" step.

ALEN SIMONYAN: It turns out that even communicating with partners on international platforms is considered by Russia as a "demonstratively anti-Russian gesture". Armenia should not communicate with anyone, should not participate in any platforms, and should not greet anyone.

Instead, Armenia must always remain dependent on the "ally" [Russia]. Armenia must always fear that it will be slaughtered if the "ally" leaves. That fear must always hover above Armenians' heads.

So I'm curious, for example, does that logic also apply to the sale of billions of dollars in [Russian] weapons to Armenia's enemy Azerbaijan and [Russia's] refusal to fulfill contractual obligations? //

[source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/272851)

FM Mirzoyan unloads on an opposition MP from a pro-Russian party, accusing the former regime of corroding Armenia's security and sovereignty by making Armenia overreliant on Russia for decades

Oppo MP: You have abandoned Nagorno-Karabakh and want to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan now. You even felt obligated to tell Turkey that you did not approve of the installation of a statue in Yerevan. You care more about receiving claps and standing ovation at the European Parliament. How is that going to improve Armenia's security? Can you list the countries with whom you've reached an agreement to defend Armenia's security?

FM MIRZOYAN: By judging from the tone of your questioning I assume your hatred towards the government is so strong that it has detached you from reality. Let's compare the actual sovereignty and independence Armenia had during your administration and ours. Under your administration, Armenia surrendered a significant part of its vital infrastructure to a third state [Russia]. I understand you are attempting to bait me [to mention Russia directly] but I'll let the independent analysts say what happened there. Armament is an important component of the defense of sovereignty. Let's look at the level of diversification of armament under your administration and ours. We have been able to acquire incomparably more weapons and from incomparably more number of countries than your party could have ever DARED or dreamed of. You were accustomed to a system in which [Russia] would use a pipette to drip as many weapons as it found necessary and to cut the flow when necessary to bring Armenia to its knees. Thankfully we have a different situation today. Sure, there are logistics issues with deliveries, we could do a lot more and bring more weapons if it wasn't for these logistics issues. You asked with a sarcastic tone what agreements Armenia has reached with others to defend Armenia. As if your so-called agreements [with Russia] were of any help; we saw not an ounce of use from it. Your system didn't work in the protection of Nagorno-Karabakh and during the invasion of the sovereign territories of Armenia starting in 2021. As for Armenia's diplomatic success in European institutions, I should note that today we have border observers from the EU. Thankfully we have not observed major incidents in those locations lately. The world is changing rapidly. Relations between two states can fall apart within hours. Agreements are difficult to enforce. We are attempting to navigate through this storm to create an atmosphere of security and stability around our republic. //

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6f4HW5sBUs)

foreign ministry about AM-EU cooperation

RULING MP: Do you plan to hold discussions around Armenia's political integration with the EU?

OFFICIAL: PM Pashinyan spoke about it during the European Parliament speech. Armenia wants to tighten the relations with the EU as much as the EU finds it possible.

Defense is a new topic on our agenda. We will also sign an agreement to strengthen the status of the European mission in Armenia.

This year, for the first time, we saw the launch of the AM-EU political and defense dialogue. The next meeting will take place in Brussels in January.

We want to strengthen the mandate of the EU border observers. We have received a positive response from the EU.

We have seen an unprecedented number of visits by ranking European officials to Armenia. This is a testament to the significant strengthening of AM-EU relations. //

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99WZP0KrClM)

Armenia plans to "certify" its national accreditation agency to be able to increase exports to EU

MP: Unlike the CEPA, the Association Agreement that Armenia was initially negotiating with the EU [before Serj's u-turn] also contained economic cooperation. Do you plan on working with the EU in this direction? What types of goods can Armenia export to the EU?

KEROBYAN, MinEconom: There are some prerequisites. In order for Armenian products to be exported more easily, they need to undergo a process involving a quality certification. By 2025, Armenia's National Accreditation Body will become a member of the European family. This will establish the institute of mutual recognition, allowing Armenian goods to reach Europe unobstructed. So our main task is to improve the infrastructure necessary for quality control.

During the first nine months of this year, we have exported $488 million in goods to Europe. This includes food, textiles, aluminum foil, minerals, wine, etc. There is not much to brag about when it comes to the structure of our exports to Europe yet. We can, after we improve the infrastructure for quality and diversify the types of goods. This will also encourage Armenian manufacturers to become more competitive.

... Kerobyan about the export of Armenian brandy cognac

Context: Armenia cannot use the French word "cognac" to describe its brandy export to Europe, so it has to come up with a new name.

MINISTER: We cooperated with an international branding company "Backbone Branding" and they advised us to name our cognac "Armenian brandy". The EU had earlier advised the same.

Today we are working with France and the EU to ensure that "Armenian brandy" isn't just a phrase, but rather a description of a specific set of standards and quality control followed by a union of Armenian producers. The creation of this quality standard is more complex than you think. We have to convince companies to follow these standards.

We have asked the management agency overseeing the "cognac" brand in France to help us create a similar system in Armenia for "Armenian brandy". Cognac is a very tightly controlled industry. They oversee the type of grape, quantities of cognac each company is allowed to produce (to control pricing), quality control, unified external marketing, etc. We need their advice so "Armenian brandy" can become associated with a high-quality product. //

... Kerobyan about Russian sanctions

MINISTER: Last month we held negotiations with the EU's trade department. One of the topics is the prevention of secondary sanctions against Armenian companies. We have set a mechanism of control for the exported goods to avoid sanctions against our companies.

... Kerobyan about trade with EAEU bloc

KEROBYAN: Trade grew with EAEU member states. Russia +56%, Belarus +27%, Kazakhstan +87%, Kyrgyzstan +400%.

... Armenia's trade with EU grew by 40% this year

The EU is the second largest trade partner after Russia.

Trade with EU +40%, France +53%, Germany +40%, Netherlands +44%.

These are the top partners in the EU:

(1) Germany $448m

(2) Italy $285m

(3) Netherlands $249m

(4) Poland $127m

(5) France $108m

... Armenia became a major financial contributor to EAEU bloc due to increased trade

In 2022 the bloc collected customs fees from member states under one account before redistributing them between members according to criteria.

Armenia gave: $315m

Armenia received: $136m

Approximately a similar situation has been observed this year so far.

... UAE becomes the largest direct investor in Armenia for the first time

(1) UAE: $???

(2) Russia: $250m

... government is encouraging companies to invest in Armenia by waiving taxes on imported goods meant for the investment

2022: $0.6 billion in qualifying imports

2023: $1.8 billion in qualifying imports

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNH2GZ5MWNU?t=144) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U321mbL2j88) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTzKOFXCliA) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNH2GZ5MWNU) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/economy/armenia_eu_trade_up_40_in_9_months_reaching_2_1_bln_economy_ministry/)

Armenia is ready to contribute to the energy security of Europe by participating in the Black Sea submarine electric cable project

FM Mirzoyan made the statement while hosting German FM Annalena Baerbock in Yerevan.

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/economy/armenia_interested_in_joining_eu_s_economic_projects_in_the_region_mirzoyan_/)

Armenia's energy projects with Georgia and Iran

RULING MP: Next year Armenia will invest in the construction of the new 400 kV power line to Georgia. This will increase the exchange of electricity from 200 MW to 350 MW in the first phase, and later to 1,050 MW if there is demand.

Any plans to utilize the AM-IR gas pipeline at full capacity? Any plans to build a new pipeline?

What's the latest update on the construction of a new nuclear plant in Armenia?

Sunny Armenia could benefit from solar. It's already developing in Armenia. What % of total energy will solar reach?

KEROBYAN: The AM-GE power line project costs ֏460m. The agreement was signed in 2014, I believe. It has since been amended. We have reached the latest phase of the tender process. The deadline is December 5. Two bidders have advanced to the next stage. We will likely revise the loan amount because the project might cost more.

This year we signed an agreement with Iran to double the gas-for-electricity volume. There are difficulties with the delivery of an additional volume of gas from Iran even though the pipeline is not running at its full capacity. To deliver more, Iran has to build additional infrastructure on their side.

There has been some work by us in the direction of green hydrogen. It's basically the conversion of solar power into hydrogen. Hydrogen is an accumulation of energy. We have studied this industry with the German Economic Team. An advisory group was hired. There are some questions here, nothing is definitive, but we have a political will to develop this sector.

Nuclear plant. There are negotiations with the U.S., France, Russia, and lately South Korea. South Korea's energy minister visited Armenia recently and presented their reactors; they take pride in their ability to finish projects on time and within budget. It differentiates South Korea from the other potential partners. //

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQn7CWjpveM)

Armenia will open diplomatic missions in South Korea and Luxemburg

South Korea will establish a resident embassy in Armenia next year. JUST A COINCIDENCE.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPRl0q7uO9k?t=328) [source,](https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/11/03/Armenia-to-open/1024218)

could Armenia study India's experience in mountain warfare?

REPORTER (Noyan Tapan): A retired major-general from India recently stated that since Armenia is facing a threat from two fronts [Nakhijevan and Azerbaijan], India could dispatch a team of experts to Armenia to share their "successful experience" with fighting on two fronts. Is this a realistic cooperation?

KAREN SARGSYAN (analyst): India is trying to join the league of big players. They are 5 minutes from becoming a superpower. India has great potential, has English as a state language, and is generally loyal to partners. They don't have many allies in the region, Armenia is the only ally in our region. Armenia's Syunik is like Suez Canal 2.0 for them. They need it as a reliable link to the EU so they can bypass the Turko-Pakistani alliance. Despite some level of IN-RU cooperation, India is also not a huge fan of Russia controlling Armenia. So it's normal that the retired generals from India, who switch to advisory work, make these suggestions. An exchange of experience is undoubtedly beneficial especially since India has one of the best experiences with mountain warfare. We have a lot to learn from them. This is especially true since we'll have Indian weapons.

There is another similar opportunity. France has announced plans to reform the Armenian army. They might rebuild our army from the ground up. The French [2]7th Alpine Brigade has experience in the mountains. But India is more experienced because they have fought multiple mountainous wars with the use of artillery.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFTQxEaHwt4)

interview with military analyst Leonid Nersisyan

REPORTER (1in): The military budgets of Azerbaijan ($3.8b) will be 2.8x larger than Armenia's ($1.4b). This is the smallest difference we've seen. What conclusions can we draw?

LEONID: Armenia's defense budget was larger than Azerbaijan's in the 1990s. The trend reversed later. Today we have the smallest difference since ~2005. Azerbaijan's defense budget has been close to the maximum for their needs and the army size. In the case of Armenia, it's been growing rapidly amid economic growth and the availability of additional resources.

REPORTER: How would you compare Armenia and Azerbaijan in terms of defense partners and delivery of weapons?

LEONID: Armenia is in search of new partners. Azerbaijan continues to have Turkey as a real ally and Israel as a supplier. Russia was also a major supplier for Azerbaijan in 2011-2018. Today Russia is not delivering anything to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan is not buying anything from them. In general, Russia is not a major supplier of weapons anymore because of the war in Ukraine.

REPORTER: Why did Armenia pay $400 million to Russia for [undelivered] weapons if there was risk?

LEONID: These contracts were signed in August. Armenia didn't know there would be a war in Ukraine. Western analysts began predicting a war starting in October, but even then, very few believed them at the time.

REPORTER: Can France and India help restore the military balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

LEONID: It's relatively easy to restore the balance of weapons but there are more important things: our biggest problem during the 2020 war was with army command. We need reforms in the army and state apparatus.

REPORTER: France has agreed to reform the army.

LEONID: Yes. That's the most important part of the AM-FR cooperation. Let's hope Armenia will accept these consultations and change the army. This will be a difficult process. India is also willing to provide consultations. The U.S. could also provide similar support.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFYWX2NunLY?t=24)

PM Pashinyan hosted the FM of Germany Baerbock

PASHINYAN: We are glad to see more engagement with Germany in our region and we see new dynamics in our relations and I think your visit is a very important impression for that and I'm sure today we'll have a practical opportunity to discuss many topics in our relations.

BAERBOCK: Thank you for receiving us. I visited today your peacekeeping mission. I also heard about the cooperation between the Armenian army and the German army, which is just a *hint* of our closer cooperation also in so many other fields. So I really appreciate that we can have such an in-depth exchange with your government in these challenging times worldwide. It's even more important to work closely together on our European continent.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OastIXR9d1Y) [more,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/272899)

crime stats: 2023 vs 2022

81% of crimes this year were small or medium severity.

In 67% of cases, authorities learned the name of the perpetrator(s). The clearance rate for very serious crimes was 21%.

Number of murders grew by 10 (not percent). On paper it's 680 because of a new reporting methodology that temporarily treats sudden deaths as possible murder.

Thefts: -34%

Narco-smuggling attempts: -44%

Corruption busts: +79%

Investigations were launched against 1,270 cops. 36% of them were found guilty and reprimanded.

[source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/272894)

---

Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/17n7en6/mountain_warfare_training_india_france_armenia_to/