2023 July 23

Daily news wrap-up

Russia washes its hands off from the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis and shifts the blame to Armenia with a disingenuous claim: Analysis by Tatul Hakobyan and Petros Ghazaryan.
by ar_david_hh

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TATUL: Azerbaijan continues with its inhumane policy of starving Nagorno-Karabakh with a blockade. Today we'll discuss possible solutions.

PETROS: We first need to understand who is responsible and what can be done. Russia's foreign ministry has accused the Pashinyan administration of making it "impossible" for Russian peacekeepers to help Nagorno-Karabakh, citing "Pashinyan's recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's status within Azerbaijan". This has energized the pro-Russian opposition forces in Armenia: *"See! Russia has named the real traitor!"*.

But Russia is manipulating.

Armenia has not signed any agreements recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said he is willing to do so if Azerbaijan can guarantee the rights and protections of ethnic Armenians. If not, then we won't sign it. Russia's foreign ministry and pro-Russian opposition forces in Armenia understand this but they'd rather engage in demagoguery.

Besides that, there is a tripartite Nov. 9 agreement, which Russia says is still active and valid, stating that Russia must guarantee the free movement in the Lachin Corridor, so it doesn't matter what the Armenian government is willing to sign in the future.

TATUL: Last year Azerbaijan rejected Russia's proposal that would have postponed the discussion of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. *[Context: Russia proposed delaying talks around the Nagorno-Karabakh status. Pashinyan agreed, calling Russia's solution as his preferred choice. He went to Russia to negotiate with Aliyev but the latter rejected Russia's proposal. Russia did nothing to promote its own proposal, prompting criticism and disappointment from Armenia. Afterward, the parties began to heavily prioritize the platforms offered by the Brussels and Washington instead.]*

Tatul continues: Russia knows very well it was Azerbaijan that rejected their proposal, not Armenia.

Let me remind you that, even before Pashinyan's announcement about his readiness to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan IF Azerbaijan provides strong guarantees, well before this statement, Russia was already failing to follow its duties.

The Khtsaberd incident, the capturing of dozens of Armenian soldiers, and Russia not securing their return to Armenia took place well before Pashinyan's statement.

The invasion of village Parukh [and Russia's refusal to remove Azeri soldiers] took place well before Pashinyan's statement.

PETROS: ... and the blockade of the Lachin Corridor that began 7 months ago and Russia's refusal to open it took place several months *before* Pashinyan's statement.

Azerbaijan invaded hundreds of km^2 of Armenian territories. Armenia asked for assistance from Russia but received a rejection. Why? There were no EU border observers in Armenia at the time. The EU observers were brought in response to Russia's inaction.

Our opposition is for some reason obsessed with justifying Russia's inaction at any cost.

Our opposition also claims that Russia didn't provide military assistance because Armenia "refused to fight", so Russia didn't want to do all the work for Armenia. But we did fight in September, yet still didn't receive assistance. Russian border guards, instead of helping, withdrew their positions from the border.

Doesn't the ostrich Maria Zakharova not see and know about this?

Aren't the hungry people of Nagorno-Karabakh fighting tooth and nail today? Yet they still receive no assistance from Russia...

TATUL: Russian peacekeepers are currently delivering food with helicopters for themselves while the children of Nagorno-Karabakh are starving to death a few kilometers away.

Now let's discuss several possible solutions.

Solution 1. Armenia pressures Azerbaijan to reopen the corridor. This cannot work at the moment because Armenia's military is not yet powerful enough.

PETROS: Some figures in Armenia are calling for Armenians to apply force. This would be an excellent gift for Azerbaijan, giving them the legitimacy to invade even more territories and invade all of Nagorno-Karabakh.

TATUL: Solution 2. The international community pressures Azerbaijan. In this scenario, the civilized world, which is the Western powers in this case, could exert enough influence to end the blockade. But we must remember that the same EU is receiving the [banned] Russian gas through Azerbaijan today. Azerbaijan is marking Russian gas as its own before exporting it to the EU to bypass the sanctions. Everyone knows about this but it's being ignored. Nevertheless, as an active member of international platforms, Armenia must carry on with the efforts to remind the international community to pressure Azerbaijan.

PETROS: Many major international institutions/organizations have already sided with Armenia and urged Azerbaijan to lift the blockade. But we shouldn't stop there.

TATUL: Solution 3. Russia pressures Azerbaijan to lift the blockade. But I think Russia doesn't want to pressure AND couldn't pressure.

PETROS: However, the latest statement made by the foreign ministry of Russia is a word-by-word copy of Armenia's policy. In it, Russia demanded Azerbaijan open the Lachin Corridor *immediately* and to create international mechanisms for the protection of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Their message mirrored the Armenian narrative. This prompted Azerbaijan to send a note of protest to Moscow; the ambassador was summoned.

TATUL: Solution 4. Armenia asks Turkey to pressure its little brother Azerbaijan. This may seem far-fetched, but it has been done in the past, during the era of the first republic. At the time, the bread and oil were entering Armenia exclusively through Azerbaijan. In the summer of 1918, Azeris cut off the flow to pressure Armenia. Armenia's foreign minister Khatisyan asked Enver Pasha [the co-organizer of the Armenian genocide just 3 years earlier] to pressure their brother Azerbaijan to resume the flow. This is part of our history that isn't being mentioned much.

PETROS: I think some people would have an acute psychiatric episode if they heard this.

TATUL: Solution 5. A direct dialogue between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. I've been speaking about this for 1.5 years. Sadly, the government of Nagorno-Karabakh still rejects this idea. I don't know why they fear a direct dialogue. [Only one figure in Nagorno-Karabakh has the courage to publicly support it: Gen. Samvel Babayan.](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/14jvrcl/direct_negotiations_between_nagornokarabakh_and/) You could always reject Azerbaijan's demands at the end, but at least go and talk to them. *[Context: Nagorno-Karabakh president has revealed that Azerbaijan was demanding the dissolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh defense army as a precondition for direct talks. The Nagorno-Karabakh side wants negotiations without preconditions, and wants to be recognized as an "equal party".]*

Scenario 6. Azerbaijan successfully carries out ethnic cleansing and genocide. This is where we are headed unless things change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5snFIAaIII&t=82s

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/157qsy7/russia_washes_its_hands_off_from_the/