2023 September 19

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Daily news wrap-up

EU warns Azerbaijan not to cause exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh // France summons UN Security Council // Armenia-Russia relations: Medvedev, Margo, Grigoryan // Interview: Aram Sargsyan & others // Yerevan elections: Marutyan's team agrees
by ar_david_hh


Azerbaijan attacks Nagorno-Karabakh: 16 villages depopulated; civilians & children murdered; hundreds are encircled; residential districts under attack

Air sirens were activated in Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday after Azerbaijan launched a massive air and land assault on the republic after months of preparing the ground with false accusations of "provocations by Armenians". It's a tactic commonly used by Azerbaijan ahead of every aggression to mislead the international community.

The targets were civilian structures in settlements and Nagorno-Karabakh's local Defense Army's positions along the line of contact. Drones, artillery, and missile systems were/are being used. The Republic of Armenia withdrew its army from Nagorno-Karabakh shortly after the 2020 war. With this attack, Azerbaijan is attempting to subjugate the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh by disarming their local defense forces.

... casualties as of late evening

27 dead (1 child, 2 civilians)

200 wounded (>12 children, dozens of civilians)

Azerbaijan said it has captured 60 positions along the line of contact.

... before the aggression

Azerbaijan claimed they had informed Russia ahead of the attack. Russia said they were informed only minutes before the launch. They requested Azerbaijan to ensure the safety of Russian peacekeepers. They are in talks with Azerbaijan about the situation.

Russia said its peacekeepers will not take action against Azerbaijan's aggression unless Azerbaijan targets them first.

... the goal is to force ethnic Armenians to leave their homeland

MFA of ARMENIA: Guided by a sense of impunity, Azerbaijan openly took responsibility for the aggression. We strongly condemn Azerbaijan's aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh and the mass atrocity crimes which is the continuation of the 2020 war.

We have repeatedly warned that the continuous aggressive actions of Azerbaijan, the warmongering rhetoric, and the reprehensible propaganda of calling the population of Nagorno-Karabakh "terrorists" pursues one goal: to subject the population of Nagorno-Karabakh to ethnic cleansing through the use of force and deprive them from the right to live freely and in dignity in their own homeland.

We call on international partners, members of the UN Security Council, and the Russian peacekeeping contingent to undertake clear and unequivocal steps to put an end to Azerbaijan's aggression. //

PM PASHINYAN: Azerbaijan's aggression began with an artillery attack, followed by a ground invasion of border positions and some villages. The goal is to subject the population of Nagorno-Karabakh to ethnic cleansing. Russian peacekeepers must take action. Secondly, the UN Security Council must take action.

If Azerbaijan claims this is an "anti-terrorist" operation not targeting civilians, then why did they announce the opening of a humanitarian corridor for the population of Nagorno-Karabakh to leave the region? If their intention was not to target civilian settlements, they should have urged civilians to take shelter instead of leaving the region. *[Azerbaijan said they will allow ethnic Armenians to exit the republic via Lachin corridor.]*

Armenia never gave Azerbaijan a mandate to commit ethnic cleansings in Nagorno-Karabakh. The rights and security of Nagorno-Karabakh must be guaranteed.

Any attempts to involve the Republic of Armenia in a conflict is unacceptable. There are internal and external forces who want to drag Armenia into a large-scale conflict to endanger Armenia's sovereignty. Armenia will not take any drastic steps at this time. Stay vigilant and wait for official updates. //

... the future presence of Russia in the region will depend on their peacekeepers' response to Azerbaijani aggression: analyst Sergey Melkonyan

MELKONYAN: The choice is simple: either Russian peacekeepers guarantee the fulfillment of the Nov. 9 agreement and subdue the aggressor, or the war in the zone of responsibility of peacekeepers will take place under their passive observation. In that case, it will no longer be necessary to talk about Russia's role as an exclusive security provider.

... Russia's response

Russia requested "both sides" to establish a ceasefire. A ranking member of Armenia's ruling party expressed disappointment over Russia's bothsidesism rhetoric.

Lately, Russia has been accusing the Armenian side [unclear if referring to Yerevan or Stepanakert] of not fulfilling certain "obligations". The Armenian government wants Russia to clarify what this "obligation" is. Armenia says it has met all the Nov. 9 obligations.

Analysis: Azerbaijan wants a 'corridor' through Armenia that will be outside of Armenian control. Armenia says it's prepared to provide a transportation route to Azerbaijani traffic, monitored by Armenian and Russian customs agents jointly to ensure the safety of Azerbaijani travelers. Azerbaijan has rejected the offer; they want only Russian or Azerbaijani agents to monitor it.

Russia has not publicly clarified what exactly it wants from Armenia, and whether it expects a "corridor" passing through Armenia. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan's media outlet had earlier accused Russia of covertly working with Azerbaijan to establish a Russian-controlled sovereign corridor passing through Armenia. This would be against the Nov. 9 agreement.

Azerbaijan and Russia have kept the population of Nagorno-Karabakh under blockade since December 2022 after the Armenian government's refusal to grant the "corridor" to Azerbaijan. //

... Armenian PM Pashinyan's media outlet claims Russia gave Nagorno-Karabakh's Defense Army's equipment locations to Azerbaijan

ArmTimes: According to sources, the Russian side provided Azerbaijan with the coordinates of equipment and structures in Nagorno-Karabakh before moving away from the mentioned positions to allow Azerbaijan to launch the attack.

... Russia's ex-president Dmitri Medvedev: Can you guess what's awaiting Pashinyan?

Dmitri Medvedev said that Pashinyan will be removed from power for strengthening Armenia's relations with the West.

KAREN SARGSYAN, analyst: I normally wouldn't take Medvedev seriously because he is known for making provocative statements, including about nuclear strikes and the Ukraine war. But it's entirely possible that he has been briefed on certain activities that are being planned in Armenia.

We knew that Kremlin didn't want Pashinyan in power but this is the first time a high-ranking official is openly stating it. I'm not surprised. By formally remaining part of the Russian-led block, we are depriving ourselves of the ability to establish closer cooperation with the West. The darkest time is always just before sunrise. We are closer than ever to Kosovo's scenario. Nagorno-Karabakh must fight for dignified self-governance or statehood. //

The pro-Russian opposition forces gathered in front of the government building with demands for Pashinyan's removal. They clashed with the police in an attempt to break into the building. Over 30 police officers and protesters were injured.

Other protesters gathered in front of the Russian embassy to complain about Russia's inaction and for allowing Azerbaijan to carry out ethnic cleansing. They encircled the embassy. Analyst Karen Sargsyan said the goal was to entrap and starve out the Russian ambassador. Russia's MFA sent a note to Armenia requesting the blockade to be lifted.

... Russian state propagandist Margarita Simonyan: Russia will do fine without Armenia

SIMONYAN: Russia will survive without Armenia, but Armenia without Russia - of course not. Kim Kardashian and NATO won't help you. Only Russia can help Armenia. //

==... interview with Armenia's National Security Council chief Armen Grigoryan || Russia is not a reliable partner

GRIGORYAN: As we have repeatedly warned, Azerbaijan is attempting to carry out an ethnic cleansing and genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh.

REPORTER: Is the target only Nagorno-Karabakh?

GRIGORYAN: Events in Nagorno-Karabakh have a direct impact on the internal stability of Armenia. Just as on November 9, 2020, we see certain forces with the direct support of external forces [Russian] are targeting the government.

REPORTER: Why hasn't the government prosecuted those who have committed violence and called for a coup in Armenia over the past 3 years? Isn't your lax policy at fault? Why is the state allowing this?

GRIGORYAN: There are objective and subjective reasons for them not being behind bars. These are individuals who are being used by foreign states. I think everyone in Armenia understands this now. The public has already judged them by ignoring their calls.

REPORTER: They blame you for the current situation, for harming the relations with Russia.

GRIGORYAN: If they think Russia bases its strategic goals on individual level then we cannot take Russia seriously. As for the ongoing propaganda campaign to blame Armenia for the situation, it should be noted that Azerbaijan is the genocidal aggressor here.

REPORTER: The opposition blames you for the cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan.

GRIGORYAN: Russia has been cooperating with Azerbaijan for a long time now. They started selling weapons worth $5 billion to Azerbaijan a decade ago. Armenia did not make any changes to its foreign policy vector after we came to power in 2018, at least not until 2022.

Russia has very clear obligations under the Nov. 9, 2020, Statement to protect Nagorno-Karabakh. What is their issue with the Armenian government in this context? Do they mean there is something more important than Vladimir Putin's signature under that document? Is it worth nothing?

Russia has not been fulfilling its obligation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has launched a large-scale attack under the inaction of Russian peacekeepers.

Russia claims it learned about the attack just minutes before the launch. In reality, we've been informing them and the world at least since September 4th about Azerbaijan's pending aggression. Pashinyan sent a letter to Putin, describing the entire situation.

REPORTER: The pro-Russian opposition claims since you're conducting NATO exercises in Armenia, sending the First Lady to Kyiv, ratifying the Rome Statute, all of these are interpreted as hostile steps by Russia so they are choosing not to help.

GRIGORYAN: None of the steps taken by Armenia that you've just listed existed before December 2021, yet Russia displayed inaction after Azerbaijan's invasion of Sotk/Khoznavar direction in May and November. Facts show that Russia is not fulfilling its obligations. Even the Prague meeting hadn't taken place yet.

Instead, Russia adopted Azerbaijan's arguments claiming that the reason is the lack of delimited AM-AZ borders. In reality, we do have fixed borders under the Alma-Ata agreement. Russia could have protected those borders if it wanted to. They'd rather blame Armenia endlessly. Something is wrong with our skin and eye color, we may find out one day.

REPORTER: They say you came with anti-Russian policies in 2018.

GRIGORYAN: We entered Syria under the Russian flag. We voted in support of Russia in every institution. We remained in CSTO and EAEU. Our vector didn't change. But in the end, all we got was a Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and the invasion of Armenia in 2021-2022. None of this has to do with the Prague meeting. Real allies help instead of finding excuses.

REPORTER: Should Armenia intervene in the ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh?

GRIGORYAN: The army of the Republic of Armenia continues to defend only the Republic of Armenia. As for the Nagorno-Karabakh situation, the international community, and first and foremost Russia, must take steps. Russian peacekeepers have many obligations other than providing medical aid. Their primary role is to protect the safety of the civilians. Vladimir Putin's signature is on it.

REPORTER: Dmitri Medvedev threatened to destroy the Armenian government. How do you plan on cooperating with Russia after that statement?

GRIGORYAN: It's something that Russia should think about. They should clarify that policy because it is against the Republic of Armenia in general. There is a war and they are making such statements? I think the Armenian public will show an adequate response to that.

If Russia wants to remain in this region, they must take steps to prevent the ethnic cleansing and genocide. If they don't, that means they have chosen to leave the region. // *[sounds like an ultimatum]*

... calls are made to nationalize Russian companies' assets in Armenia

Ioannesian, Informed Citizens NGO: Armenia gave Russia a monopoly for gas, all the important economic hubs, the nuclear plant, railways, membership to CSTO and EAEU, all this in exchange for security guarantees.

It's obvious now that Russia has joined our enemy. Now they are trying to organize a coup in Armenia.

Immediately nationalize Gazprom-Armenia, take over the control of railways and the nuclear plant, remove the 102nd Russian military base from Armenia and their border guards, and shut down the broadcasting of Russian state media in Armenia. //

... major Russian opposition media outlets and figures took a more pro-Armenian stance

Putin critic Vladimir Milov, a former Russian government member, believes ethnic Armenians cannot be ruled by Azerbaijan because the latter is a dictatorship that cannot guarantee the physical safety of Armenians, especially considering the history of massacres of Armenians in various settlements of Azerbaijan. He joined the EU and condemned the aggression. Milov said he had warned Armenia not to trust Putin with Armenia's security. *"Putin spat on Armenia."*

Coverage by TV Rain's Kotrikadze: [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5_VudzYteM?t=1541).

Popular Politics: Ilham Aliyev adopted Vladimir Putin's rhetoric before the invasion of Ukraine and has declared essentially the 3rd Karabakh war. Putin has abandoned its ally. [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2J3_-PTpMHM), [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPaIYJ1gO3Y?t=1087)

Redaktsiya: [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hm0vV6k_oo)

... interview with ex-PM Aram Sargsyan

SARGSYAN: The world has seen conflicts like this. There was a similar situation in Kosovo. Azerbaijan has adopted Serbia's policies. The UN decided to deploy peacekeepers after Serbs invaded territories and took hostages. The Hague ruled it a genocide, prompting the world to recognize Kosovo's independence.

The difference with Nagorno-Karabakh is that while the leaders of Kosovo had been working with the West for a year, the leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh chose to cling to Russia and dismissed the "British tanks that cannot climb our mountains". I've warned on numerous occasions that the only way to save Nagorno-Karabakh is by deploying international peacekeepers.

My brothers, you followed Russia and removed President Arayik Harutyunyan from power in Nagorno-Karabakh, replacing him with some security agency agent. And what is the result? Do you want the same in Armenia now?

REPORTER: Explain the connection with Arayik's removal.

SARGSYAN: During his press conference Arayik urged the world and Russia to open the Lachin corridor within 15 days. I've been in touch with Arayik and I'll open a secret now *[here we go again]*: I listened to his stance and informed him that I'll convey his message to the U.S. ambassador in Armenia. Arayik's stance was that if within 15 days the world didn't do everything possible to open the Lachin corridor, a mass starvation would begin, prompting the Nagorno-Karabakh government to request a safe corridor to evacuate the entire 120,000 population out of Nagorno-Karabakh.

If Arayik was in power right now, he would have made that request, [prompting a strong response from the West and more pressure]. Today's president will not do this because that would be against Russian interests. Russia needs 5,000 ethnic Armenians with Azerbaijani passports to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh so they can keep their troops in this region.

REPORTER: Why shouldn't Armenia become part of Russia, like Tatarstan? We are surrounded by enemies. Maybe that's the best option.

SARGSYAN: Independence is a supreme value. I would have arrested you for even suggesting that if I were the authority.

REPORTER: I'm just asking.

SARGSYAN: Hah. Still unacceptable. That would be the end of Armenia. The path to our survival is to break free of Russia. Declare right now that Armenia is choosing the U.S. nuclear technology for its next reactor. The U.S. first made an offer to install modular reactors in Armenia 3 years ago. You could diversify the reactors' geographical locations for security and power grid management purposes. They are also very seismically resilient due to their capsular design.

The UN Security Council session is on Thursday. The government of Nagorno-Karabakh must send them a letter stating that Russian peacekeepers aren't fulfilling their duties, and make the following demand: either send international peacekeepers or ensure a safe exodus of ethnic Armenians out of Nagorno-Karabakh. //

... EU's response to Azerbaijan's aggression

The EU requested Azerbaijan to cease the attack and added: *"This military escalation should not be used as a pretext to force the exodus of the local population."*

EU: We condemn the military escalation along the Line of Contact & in other locations in Karabakh. We call for an immediate cessation of hostilities & for Azerbaijan to stop military activities. //

... Norway's response:

>Continued use of Azerbaijani military power may force the Armenian population to flee the region and create a humanitarian catastrophe. Such a tragedy must be avoided at all costs.

... France's response

France condemned Azerbaijan and requested a UN Security Council session on September 21. "France places the exclusive responsibility for the fate of the people of Nagorno Karabakh on Azerbaijan."

France is in touch with the U.S. and EU. A phone call was held between Pashinyan and Macron.

... U.S. response

Pashinyan spoke with Anthony Blinken. They both emphasized the need to use international mechanisms for de-escalation.

BLINKEN: The U.S. calls on Azerbaijan to cease these military actions immediately. These actions are worsening an already dire humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and undermine prospects for peace. As we have previously made clear to Azerbaijan, the use of force to resolve disputes is unacceptable and runs counter to efforts to create conditions for a just and dignified peace in the region. We call for an immediate end to hostilities and for respectful dialogue between Baku and representatives of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh.

... UK's response

UK: The return of military conflict is devastating for the local population. Azerbaijan should cease military action. U.K. working hard to urge dialogue.

... Germany accuses Azerbaijan of breaking a promise

FM of Germany, Baerbock: Over the past few weeks, we've spoken with the Azerbaijani side and received promises for the safe passage of humanitarian convoys, and that there won't be violence. We see that this promise was broken.

PM Scholz: Baku must immediately stop the attacks and return to diplomacy to reach a peaceful solution.

... response by Freedom House:

Any attempt to forcibly change the region's demographics is illegal and unacceptable. We strongly condemn the Azerbaijani government’s violent attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh, heightening the risk of ethnic cleansing against the region’s Armenian population.


... POLITICO: Azerbaijan launches attack in Nagorno-Karabakh, announces ‘evacuation’ of Armenian population

[article](https://www.politico.eu/article/azerbaijan-launch-anti-terror-operation-nagorno-karabakh-armenia/)

... ethnic Armenian civilians in a Nagorno-Karabakh village find themselves encircled by Azerbaijani troops

Village Yeghtsahogh (Եղցահող) with a population of 150 cannot evacuate residents because they have been encircled. Azerbaijani army targeted the local school.

The village is just north of Mets Shen, another village that was targeted by Azerbaijan shortly after the 2020 war.

... Azerbaijani aggression has forced ethnic Armenians of 16 Nagorno-Karabakh villages to leave their homes

Some of the villages are Khramort, Khnapat, Sarnaghbyur, Nakhijevanik, Machkalashen, and Chankatagh. They are located along the Agdam-Stepanakert road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh's Ivanyan to Azerbaijan's Agdam.

Overall, 7,000 people had to be evacuated out of 16 settlements across Nagorno-Karabakh.

... calls for negotiations

The Nagorno-Karabakh government urged Azerbaijan to cease hostilities as soon as possible and engage in negotiations. Azerbaijan later stated they are willing to hold talks in the Azerbaijani settlement of Yevlakh under the condition that Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians would dissolve all branches of the local government. No ceasefire has been established as of 2 a.m.

... members of the European Parliament urged the European Council to discuss sanctions against Azerbaijan

MEPs: We condemn in the strongest terms this pre-planned and unjustified Azerbaijani attack on Nagorno-Karabakh. In the absence of an immediate halt to the attack, we call on the EU Council to fundamentally review relations with Azerbaijan and consider imposing sanctions against the responsible Azerbaijani authorities.

electoral commission is conducting mandatory recount after a tight race in Yerevan municipal elections

The process will be monitored by the political parties, NGOs, and the press. It will be recorded. A difference of as little as 100 votes could change the number of Council seats allocated to each party, said Informed Citizens NGO yesterday.

The former regime has, without evidence, accused the ruling party of attempting to "rig" the vote. The ruling party denied the accusation and said they did not initiate this recount. This recount is required under the law. Three random polling stations will be selected in each precinct for the recount.

[source,](https://hetq.am/hy/article/160185) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/politics/mother_armenia_bloc_leader_warns_of_authorities_plans_to_recount_votes_to_grab_one_more_seat_in_yere/) [source,](https://factor.am/689734.html) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/politics/pambukhchian_civil_contract_did_not_apply_to_cec_for_recounting_of_votes/)

analyst Karen Sargsyan about Yerevan elections

KAREN: Tigran Avinyan was perhaps the worst candidate the ruling party could have nominated. He was a pandemic- and war-era figure with heavy baggage. Even many officials within QP did not want his candidacy. The ruling party's mistake was treating Yerevan like the rest of the country.

Still, I don't think this election indicates the end of Pashinyan. If the turnout was >50% with each party winning similar shares, then perhaps you could argue that.

What's clear after this election is that the former regime has peaked. They only got like 25,000 votes out of 825,000. That's about the size of their biggest crowd during the 2021-2022 protests.

The state of media health is laughable. People are hooked on Russian-language Telegram channels. The public is consuming Russian propaganda en masse yet even under these conditions they could only get 25,000 votes. //

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt6HiBP9mCM)

Hayk Marutyan's team supports the idea of working with the former regime to remove Pashinyan from power

Context in [yesterday's election results coverage](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/16m6bex/the_clown_show_begins/).

Marutyan's ranking party member Isabella Abgaryan was asked to comment on a possible coalition with the former regime and Dog, after Marutyan left the door open in his Monday speech.

Marutyan's team does not want to sign an official coalition but wants the former regime and Dog to help Marutyan become the mayor. "We all have the same goal," said Abgaryan. The goal is to prevent "evil" Tigran Avinyan from becoming the mayor.

QUESTION: How would this setup work, though? If the ex-regime and Dog vote for Marutyan without a formal coalition and join the QP as opposition.

ABGARYAN: It will be an interesting situation. The second largest party will rule. The largest party will become an opposition. No worries though, because the Council only makes decisions on non-political issues. They are about administrative decisions. Obviously, Marutyan and our team will have to ensure that other parties support his proposed plans.

We must never forget that we only have an advantage of a single seat, however. That's dangerous. I've never seen a Council session where every member is present for a vote. People miss a vote because they get sick, they are on a trip etc. Avinyan would have a similar problem if he were in our place. How are you supposed to pass the municipal budget like this? Sadly, I predict a governing crisis. This was not the ideal outcome.

QUESTION: In exchange for votes, the former regime wants Marutyan to help remove Pashinyan from power. Do you support this?

ABGARYAN: If Marutyan becomes the mayor of Yerevan, obviously he will be interested in changing the central government in Armenia and remove Pashinyan who is unfriendly to him.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFuwwdszoyI)


Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/16n5kwj/eu_warns_azerbaijan_not_to_cause_exodus_of_ethnic/

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